Determination of Cut Point in the Age of Colorectal Cancer Diagnosis Using a Survival Cure Model

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Colorectal Cancer (CRC) is the fourth cancer-related cause of death worldwide. CRC is a multi-stage cancer, which is curable during the early stages of the disease. Therefore, determining the time of cut-point existence could improve treatment planning and help directly allocate resources. This study aims to determine the cut point in the age of CRC diagnosis. METHODS: This study, covering the course 1985 to 2012, consisted of 345 colorectal cancer patients registered in Taleghani Hospital, Tehran, Iran and followed up to 2013. The cut-point in the age of CRC diagnosis was obtained using a mixture cure model. The data were analyzed using SPSS and R, V. 20 and 2.15.0, respectively. RESULTS: The results showed that the cut point in the age of CRC diagnosis was 50 years. Based on our estimation, 65% of the patients diagnosed with CRC at or younger than 50 were cured, while 31% of them diagnosed older than 50 were cured, and the younger group had a better survival over the older group. CONCLUSION: Since access to a cut-point and analysis of created prognostic groups are important in screening and treatment planning, our results suggested that it is better to estimate the cut-point in the age of curable cancers in early stages via survival cure models, and the cure rate would increase by CRC timely screening.