Aplicación de The Community Assessment Risk Screen en centros de atención primaria del Sistema Sanitario Valenciano

OBJECTIVE: Application of The Community Assessment Risk Screen (CARS) tool for detection of chronic elderly patients at risk of hospital readmission and the viability study for its inclusion in health information systems. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. LOCATION: Health Departments 6, 10, and 11 from the Valencia Community. PARTICIPANTS: Patients of 65 and over seen in 6 Primary Care centres in December 2008. The sample consisted of 500 patients (sampling error = ± 4.37%, sampling fraction = 1/307). VARIABLES: The CARS tools includes 3 items: Diagnostics (heart diseases, diabetes, myocardial infarction, stroke, COPD, cancer), number of prescribed drugs and hospital admissions or emergency room visits in the previous 6 months. The data came from SIA-Abucasis, GAIA and MDS, and were compared by Primary Care professionals. The end-point was hospital admission in 2009. RESULTS: CARS risk levels are related to future readmission (P < .001). The value of sensitivity and specificity is 0.64; the tool accurately identifies patients with low probability of being hospitalized in the future (negative predictive value = 0.91, diagnostic efficacy = 0.67), but has a positive predictive value of 0.24. CONCLUSIONS: CARS does not properly identify the population at high risk of hospital readmission. However, if it could be revised and the positive predictive value improved, it could be incorporated into the Primary Care computer systems and be useful in the initial screening and grouping of chronic patients at risk of hospital readmission.