Septal total atrial conduction time for prediction of atrial fibrillation in embolic stroke of unknown source: a pilot study

BACKGROUND: Subclinical atrial fibrillation (AF) is the underlying cause in a relevant part of patients with embolic stroke of unknown source (ESUS). This pilot study aims to identify novel echocardiographic parameters predicting AF subsequently detected in patients originally hospitalized with ESUS. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with acute ischemic stroke [baseline diagnosis of ESUS (n = 69), stroke of macro- or microvascular cause (n = 16/25), stroke caused by AF (n = 5)] and controls with paroxysmal AF without acute ischemic stroke (n = 22) as well as healthy controls of young and old age (n = 21/17) in sinus rhythm were included (overall n = 175). Echocardiography was performed in all participants. Prolonged Holter-ECG-monitoring was performed in all stroke patients. In the overall cohort, septal total atrial conduction time (sPA-TDI), left atrial (LA) volume index to tissue Doppler velocity (LAVI/a`) and second negative peak strain rate during LA contraction (SRa), representing echocardiographic parameters of LA remodelling and function, were statistically significant different in patients with and without AF and predictive for subclinical AF (multivariate regression analysis: sPA-TDI: HR 1.06 [1.04–1.08], p < 0.001; LAVI/a`: HR 0.85, [0.74–0.97], p = 0.02; SRa: HR 2.35 [0.9–5.5], p = 0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed sPA-TDI as an independent predictor of AF in ESUS patients (sPA-TDI: HR 1.10 [1.04–1.17], p = 0.001). A sPA-TDI of 126 ms strictly discriminated between presence and absence of subclinical AF within 48 h after initiation of Holter-ECG-monitoring in ESUS patients. CONCLUSIONS: sPA-TDI seems to be a strong independent predictor of subclinical AF in patients hospitalized for ESUS and might support risk-stratified clinical decision making in these patients. GRAPHIC ABSTRACT: Septal Total Atrial Conduction Time (sPA-TDI) determined by echocardiography for prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in Embolic Stroke of Unknown Source (ESUS). [Image: see text] ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00392-019-01501-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.