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Should I Stay or Should I Go: Partially Sedentary Populations Can Outperform Fully Dispersing Populations in Response to Climate-Induced Range Shifts
Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.72 [Formula: see text] C since the 1950s, and climate warming is resulting in geographical shifts in the range limits of many species. Climate velocity is estimated to be 0.42 km/year, and if a species fails to adapt to the new climate, it must track the...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer US
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6994560/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32006139 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-020-00700-7 |
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author | Cobbold, Christina A. Stana, Remus |
author_facet | Cobbold, Christina A. Stana, Remus |
author_sort | Cobbold, Christina A. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.72 [Formula: see text] C since the 1950s, and climate warming is resulting in geographical shifts in the range limits of many species. Climate velocity is estimated to be 0.42 km/year, and if a species fails to adapt to the new climate, it must track the location of its climatically constrained niche in order to survive. Dispersal has an important role to play in enabling a population to shift is geographical range limits, but many species are partially sedentary, with only a fraction of the population dispersing each year. We ask, can partially sedentary populations keep pace with climate or will such populations be more vulnerable to extinction? Through the development of a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model, we show that, provided climate velocity is not too large, partially sedentary populations can outperform fully dispersing populations in one of two ways: (i) by persisting at climate speeds where a fully dispersing population cannot, and (ii) exhibiting higher population densities. Moreover, we find that positive density-dependent dispersal can further improve the likelihood a population can persist. Our results highlight the positive role that non-dispersers may play in mitigating the effects of overdispersal and facilitating population persistence in a warming world. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6994560 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Springer US |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-69945602020-02-14 Should I Stay or Should I Go: Partially Sedentary Populations Can Outperform Fully Dispersing Populations in Response to Climate-Induced Range Shifts Cobbold, Christina A. Stana, Remus Bull Math Biol Original Article Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.72 [Formula: see text] C since the 1950s, and climate warming is resulting in geographical shifts in the range limits of many species. Climate velocity is estimated to be 0.42 km/year, and if a species fails to adapt to the new climate, it must track the location of its climatically constrained niche in order to survive. Dispersal has an important role to play in enabling a population to shift is geographical range limits, but many species are partially sedentary, with only a fraction of the population dispersing each year. We ask, can partially sedentary populations keep pace with climate or will such populations be more vulnerable to extinction? Through the development of a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model, we show that, provided climate velocity is not too large, partially sedentary populations can outperform fully dispersing populations in one of two ways: (i) by persisting at climate speeds where a fully dispersing population cannot, and (ii) exhibiting higher population densities. Moreover, we find that positive density-dependent dispersal can further improve the likelihood a population can persist. Our results highlight the positive role that non-dispersers may play in mitigating the effects of overdispersal and facilitating population persistence in a warming world. Springer US 2020-01-31 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC6994560/ /pubmed/32006139 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-020-00700-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Original Article Cobbold, Christina A. Stana, Remus Should I Stay or Should I Go: Partially Sedentary Populations Can Outperform Fully Dispersing Populations in Response to Climate-Induced Range Shifts |
title | Should I Stay or Should I Go: Partially Sedentary Populations Can Outperform Fully Dispersing Populations in Response to Climate-Induced Range Shifts |
title_full | Should I Stay or Should I Go: Partially Sedentary Populations Can Outperform Fully Dispersing Populations in Response to Climate-Induced Range Shifts |
title_fullStr | Should I Stay or Should I Go: Partially Sedentary Populations Can Outperform Fully Dispersing Populations in Response to Climate-Induced Range Shifts |
title_full_unstemmed | Should I Stay or Should I Go: Partially Sedentary Populations Can Outperform Fully Dispersing Populations in Response to Climate-Induced Range Shifts |
title_short | Should I Stay or Should I Go: Partially Sedentary Populations Can Outperform Fully Dispersing Populations in Response to Climate-Induced Range Shifts |
title_sort | should i stay or should i go: partially sedentary populations can outperform fully dispersing populations in response to climate-induced range shifts |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6994560/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32006139 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-020-00700-7 |
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