Loss of skeletal muscle index and survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: Secondary analysis of the phase 3 CAIRO3 trial

BACKGROUND: Low skeletal muscle index (SMI) in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients is associated with poor outcomes. The prognostic impact of SMI changes during consecutive palliative systemic treatments is unknown. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of the phase 3 CAIRO3 study. The CAIRO3 study randomized 557 patients between maintenance capecitabine + bevacizumab (CAP‐B) or observation, after six cycles capecitabine + oxaliplatin + bevacizumab (CAPOX‐B). Upon first disease progression (PD1), CAPOX‐B was reintroduced until second progression (PD2). SMI was assessed by computed tomography (CT) (total 1355 scans). SMI and body mass index (BMI) changes were analyzed for three time‐periods; p1: during initial CAPOX‐B, p2: randomization to PD1, and p3: PD1 to PD2. The association between absolute and change in SMI and BMI (both per 1 standard deviation) during p1‐p3, with PD1, PD2, and survival was studied by Cox regression models. RESULTS: This analysis included 450 of the 557 patients randomized in the CAIRO3 study. Mean SMI decreased during p1: mean −0.6 SMI units [95% CI −1.07;‐0.26] and p3: −2.2 units [−2.7;‐1.8], whereas during p2, SMI increased + 1.2 units [0.8‐1.6]. BMI changes did not reflect changes in SMI. SMI loss during p2 and p3 was significantly associated with shorter survival (HR 1.19 [1.09‐1.35]; 1.54 [1.31‐1.79], respectively). Sarcopenia at PD1 was significantly associated with early PD2 (HR 1.40 [1.10‐1.70]). BMI loss independent of SMI loss was only associated with shorter overall survival during p3 (HR 1.35 [1.14‐1.63]). CONCLUSIONS: In mCRC patients, SMI loss during palliative systemic treatment was related with early disease progression and reduced survival. BMI did not reflect changes in SMI and could not identify patients at risk of poor outcome during early treatment lines.