Monitoring the trends of water-erosion desertification on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China from 1989 to 2016 using time-series Landsat images

The Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau (YGP) is a typical ecologically fragile region in southwest China. Water-erosion desertification (WED) is one of the most significant environmental and socio-economic issues on the YGP and has seriously restricted the socio-economic development of this region. However, the research on monitoring of the desertification trends in this region has been limited to long time-series Landsat imagery. The objectives of this research were to monitor the WED trends on the YGP using time-series Landsat imagery data from 1989 to 2016. In this paper, we present a multi-indicator rule-based method, which was used to map the WED on the YGP during this period. The results show that the addition of multiple indicators improved the WED classification accuracy to 90.61%. Overall, the following results were obtained by using the proposed method. (1) The slight desertification area on the YGP increased from 89,617.09 km(2) in 1989 to 100,976.47 km(2) in 2016 with an annual growth ratio (AGR) of 0.48%, the moderate desertification area increased from 80,276.65 km(2) in 1989 to 90,768.39 km(2) in 2016 with an AGR of 0.50%, and the severe desertification area increased from 8149.3 km(2) in 1989 to 13,220.16 km(2) in 2016 with an AGR of 2.39%. (2) The WED expansion on the YGP can be divided into three stages. Firstly, the total WED area increased slowly from 17.80×10(4) km(2) in 1989 to 17.98×10(4) km(2) in 2010 with an AGR of 0.05%. Then, the WED rapidly expanded from 17.98×10(4) km(2) in 2010 to 20.28×10(4) km(2) in 2013 with an AGR of 4.26%. Finally, the WED increased slightly from 20.28×10(4) km(2) in 2013 to 20.50×10(4) km(2) in 2016 with an AGR of 0.36%. The total areas of the different degrees of WED decreased in 1992, 1998, 2001, and 2004. (3) The driving factors of WED were analyzed based on the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model. We found that precipitation, vegetation area, and gross domestic product have key roles in the processes of desertification reversion and development. However, the regression coefficients between WED and these factors exhibited considerable spatial variations. The regression coefficients of the key driving factors showed different spatial distributions based on the GWR model in the YGP. The research results can provide scientific reference information for the prevention and control of WED in the YGP.