Risk assessment of first upper gastrointestinal bleeding using computerized tomoscanning in esophageal varices patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension

To evaluate the risk of first upper gastrointestinal bleeding by computerized tomoscanning (CT) for esophageal varices patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension. One hundred thirty two esophageal varices patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension who are also complicated with gastrointestinal bleeding were recruited as bleeding group, while another 132 patients without bleeding as non-bleeding group. The diameter of esophageal varices, number of vascular sections, and total area of blood vessels were measured by CT scanning. The sensitivity and specificity of these indicators were calculated, and Youden index was adjusted with the critical point. The diameter of esophageal varices was 7.83 ± 2.76 mm in bleeding group, and 6.57 ± 3.42 mm in non-bleeding group. The Youden index was 0.32 with the critical point 5.55 mm. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) was 0.72. The number of venous vessels was 4.5 ± 2 in bleeding group, whereas being 4 ± 2 in non-bleeding group. The Youden index was 0.35 with a critical point 4, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.68. The blood vessel area was 1.73 ± 1.15 cm(2) in bleeding group, and 1.12 ± 0.89 cm(2) in non-bleeding group. The Youden index was 0.48 with the critical point being 1.03 cm(2), and corresponding AUC was 0.82. Among all 3 indicators of the total area, diameter, and number of sections of the esophageal varices, the total area of esophageal varices showed more accuracy as a potential and novel indicator for bleeding prediction.