Seasonality of the transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China

This study attempts to figure out the seasonality of the transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). A mathematical model was established to calculate the transmissibility based on the reported data for HFMD in Xiamen City, China from 2014 to 2018. The transmissibility was measured by effective reproduction number (R(eff)) in order to evaluate the seasonal characteristics of HFMD. A total of 43 659 HFMD cases were reported in Xiamen, for the period 2014 to 2018. The median of annual incidence was 221.87 per 100 000 persons (range: 167.98/100,000–283.34/100 000). The reported data had a great fitting effect with the model (R(2) = 0.9212, P < 0.0001), it has been shown that there are two epidemic peaks of HFMD in Xiamen every year. Both incidence and effective reproduction number had seasonal characteristics. The peak of incidence, 1–2 months later than the effective reproduction number, occurred in Summer and Autumn, that is, June and October each year. Both the incidence and transmissibility of HFMD have obvious seasonal characteristics, and two annual epidemic peaks as well. The peak of incidence is 1–2 months later than R(eff).