Dynamics of stunting from childhood to youthhood in Ethiopia: Evidence from the Young Lives panel data

INTRODUCTION: Stunting continues to be a public health challenge with grave health, cognitive and economic consequences. Yet, its dynamics along the life course remain not well investigated in Ethiopia and beyond. METHODS: Longitudinal data generated by following two (younger and older) cohorts of about 3000 children for nearly 15 years were analyzed to investigate the longitudinal dynamics of stunting in Ethiopia. The cross-sectional prevalence of stunting in each round, longitudinal prevalence, and transition probabilities were determined. Multilevel mixed effects ordinal regression was applied to identify the determinants of stunting accounting for child-level and cluster-level variations. RESULTS: The cross-sectional prevalence of severe stunting for the younger cohort fluctuated between 21% and 6%, while for the older cohort it fluctuated between 12% and 3%. Moderate stunting fluctuated between 23% and 16% for the younger cohort and between 22% and 8% for the older cohort. The longitudinal prevalence of severe stunting was 10% in both the younger and older cohorts, whereas that of moderate stunting was 20% for the younger cohort and 18% for the older cohort. Children not stunted at baseline had very high probabilities of remaining not stunted through youthhood (87% for the younger and 90% for the older cohorts). Conversely, children with moderate stunting at baseline had high probabilities either remaining moderately stunted or progressing to severe stunting. Furthermore, children who had severe stunting at baseline had high probabilities of either remaining severely stunted or transitioning to moderate stunting. In both cohorts, older age of the child, female sex, having an educated mother, and being from a household with educated head significantly reduced the risk of stunting. Children from households in the top wealth tertile had a significantly lower risk of stunting in the younger cohort, but not in the older cohort. Similarly, Productive Safety Net Programme reduced the risk of stunting in the younger cohort, but not in the older cohort. CONCLUSION: Children not stunted early in life are highly likely to grow into non-stunted adults while children stunted early in life are highly likely to grow into stunted adults. Several child-level, maternal, household and programmatic factors affect the risk of stunting. Efforts to prevent stunting shall commence early in life.