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Current and Future Disease Burden From Ambient Ozone Exposure in India

Long‐term ambient ozone (O(3)) exposure is a risk factor for human health. We estimate the source‐specific disease burden associated with long‐term O(3) exposure in India at high spatial resolution using updated risk functions from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II. We estimate...

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Autores principales: Conibear, Luke, Butt, Edward W., Knote, Christoph, Spracklen, Dominick V., Arnold, Stephen R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7007144/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32159006
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GH000168
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author Conibear, Luke
Butt, Edward W.
Knote, Christoph
Spracklen, Dominick V.
Arnold, Stephen R.
author_facet Conibear, Luke
Butt, Edward W.
Knote, Christoph
Spracklen, Dominick V.
Arnold, Stephen R.
author_sort Conibear, Luke
collection PubMed
description Long‐term ambient ozone (O(3)) exposure is a risk factor for human health. We estimate the source‐specific disease burden associated with long‐term O(3) exposure in India at high spatial resolution using updated risk functions from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II. We estimate 374,000 (95UI: 140,000–554,000) annual premature mortalities using the updated risk function in India in 2015, 200% larger than estimates using the earlier American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II risk function. We find that land transport emissions dominate the source contribution to this disease burden (35%), followed by emissions from power generation (23%). With no change in emissions by 2050, we estimate 1,126,000 (95UI: 421,000–1,667,000) annual premature mortalities, an increase of 200% relative to 2015 due to population aging and growth increasing the number of people susceptible to air pollution. We find that the International Energy Agency New Policy Scenario provides small changes (+1%) to this increasing disease burden from the demographic transition. Under the International Energy Agency Clean Air Scenario we estimate 791,000 (95UI: 202,000–1,336,000) annual premature mortalities in 2050, avoiding 335,000 annual premature mortalities (45% of the increase) compared to the scenario of no emission change. Our study highlights that critical public health benefits are possible with stringent emission reductions, despite population growth and aging increasing the attributable disease burden from O(3) exposure even under such strong emission reductions. The disease burden attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure dominates that from ambient O(3) exposure in the present day, while in the future, they may be similar in magnitude.
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spelling pubmed-70071442020-03-10 Current and Future Disease Burden From Ambient Ozone Exposure in India Conibear, Luke Butt, Edward W. Knote, Christoph Spracklen, Dominick V. Arnold, Stephen R. Geohealth Research Articles Long‐term ambient ozone (O(3)) exposure is a risk factor for human health. We estimate the source‐specific disease burden associated with long‐term O(3) exposure in India at high spatial resolution using updated risk functions from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II. We estimate 374,000 (95UI: 140,000–554,000) annual premature mortalities using the updated risk function in India in 2015, 200% larger than estimates using the earlier American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II risk function. We find that land transport emissions dominate the source contribution to this disease burden (35%), followed by emissions from power generation (23%). With no change in emissions by 2050, we estimate 1,126,000 (95UI: 421,000–1,667,000) annual premature mortalities, an increase of 200% relative to 2015 due to population aging and growth increasing the number of people susceptible to air pollution. We find that the International Energy Agency New Policy Scenario provides small changes (+1%) to this increasing disease burden from the demographic transition. Under the International Energy Agency Clean Air Scenario we estimate 791,000 (95UI: 202,000–1,336,000) annual premature mortalities in 2050, avoiding 335,000 annual premature mortalities (45% of the increase) compared to the scenario of no emission change. Our study highlights that critical public health benefits are possible with stringent emission reductions, despite population growth and aging increasing the attributable disease burden from O(3) exposure even under such strong emission reductions. The disease burden attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure dominates that from ambient O(3) exposure in the present day, while in the future, they may be similar in magnitude. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2018-11-13 /pmc/articles/PMC7007144/ /pubmed/32159006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GH000168 Text en ©2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Conibear, Luke
Butt, Edward W.
Knote, Christoph
Spracklen, Dominick V.
Arnold, Stephen R.
Current and Future Disease Burden From Ambient Ozone Exposure in India
title Current and Future Disease Burden From Ambient Ozone Exposure in India
title_full Current and Future Disease Burden From Ambient Ozone Exposure in India
title_fullStr Current and Future Disease Burden From Ambient Ozone Exposure in India
title_full_unstemmed Current and Future Disease Burden From Ambient Ozone Exposure in India
title_short Current and Future Disease Burden From Ambient Ozone Exposure in India
title_sort current and future disease burden from ambient ozone exposure in india
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7007144/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32159006
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GH000168
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