Early prediction of extubation failure in patients with severe pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study

Backgroud: Severe pneumonia is one of the most common causes for mechanical ventilation. We aimed to early identify severe pneumonia patients with high risk of extubation failure in order to improve prognosis. Methods: From April 2014 to December 2015, medical records of intubated patients with severe pneumonia in intensive care unit were retrieved from database. Patients were divided into extubation success and failure groups, and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify independent predictors for extubation failure. Results: A total of 125 eligible patients were included, of which 82 and 43 patients had extubation success and failure, respectively. APACHE II score (odds ratio (OR) 1.141, 95% confident interval (CI) 1.022–1.273, P = 0.019, cutoff at 17.5), blood glucose (OR 1.122, 95%CI 1.008–1.249, P = 0.035, cutoff at 9.87 mmol/l), dose of fentanyl (OR 3.010, 95%CI 1.100–8.237, P = 0.032, cutoff at 1.135 mg/d), and the need for red blood cell (RBC) transfusion (OR 2.774, 95%CI 1.062–7.252, P = 0.037) were independent risk factors for extubation failure. Conclusion: In patients with severe pneumonia, APACHE II score > 17.5, blood glucose > 9.87 mmol/l, fentanyl usage > 1.135 mg/d, and the need for RBC transfusion might be associated with higher risk of extubation failure.