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Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use

Even if the epidemic of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is still far from being over worldwide, the health effects of regulations banning asbestos can be evaluated in the countries that implemented them early. Estimates of MPM future burden can be useful to inform and support the implementation...

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Autores principales: Oddone, Enrico, Bollon, Jordy, Nava, Consuelo Rubina, Bugani, Marcella, Consonni, Dario, Marinaccio, Alessandro, Magnani, Corrado, Barone-Adesi, Francesco
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7013387/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31963601
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020607
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author Oddone, Enrico
Bollon, Jordy
Nava, Consuelo Rubina
Bugani, Marcella
Consonni, Dario
Marinaccio, Alessandro
Magnani, Corrado
Barone-Adesi, Francesco
author_facet Oddone, Enrico
Bollon, Jordy
Nava, Consuelo Rubina
Bugani, Marcella
Consonni, Dario
Marinaccio, Alessandro
Magnani, Corrado
Barone-Adesi, Francesco
author_sort Oddone, Enrico
collection PubMed
description Even if the epidemic of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is still far from being over worldwide, the health effects of regulations banning asbestos can be evaluated in the countries that implemented them early. Estimates of MPM future burden can be useful to inform and support the implementation of anti-asbestos health policies all around the world. With this aim we described the trends of MPM deaths in Italy (1970–2014) and predicted the future number of cases in both sexes (2015–2039), with consideration of the national asbestos ban that was issued in 1992. The Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) provided MPM mortality figures. Cases ranging from 25 to 89 years of age were included in the analysis. For each five-year period from 1970 to 2014, mortality rates were calculated and age–period–cohort Poisson models were used to predict future burden of MPM cases until 2039. During the period 1970–2014 a total number of 28,907 MPM deaths were observed. MPM deaths increased constantly over the study period, ranging from 1356 cases in 1970–1974 to 5844 cases in 2010–2014. The peak of MPM cases is expected to be reached in the period 2020–2024 (about 7000 cases). The decrease will be slow: about 26,000 MPM cases are expected to occur in Italy during the next 20 years (2020–2039). The MPM epidemic in Italy is far from being concluded despite the national ban implemented in 1992, and the peak is expected in 2020–2024, in both sexes. Our results are consistent with international literature.
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spelling pubmed-70133872020-03-09 Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use Oddone, Enrico Bollon, Jordy Nava, Consuelo Rubina Bugani, Marcella Consonni, Dario Marinaccio, Alessandro Magnani, Corrado Barone-Adesi, Francesco Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Even if the epidemic of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is still far from being over worldwide, the health effects of regulations banning asbestos can be evaluated in the countries that implemented them early. Estimates of MPM future burden can be useful to inform and support the implementation of anti-asbestos health policies all around the world. With this aim we described the trends of MPM deaths in Italy (1970–2014) and predicted the future number of cases in both sexes (2015–2039), with consideration of the national asbestos ban that was issued in 1992. The Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) provided MPM mortality figures. Cases ranging from 25 to 89 years of age were included in the analysis. For each five-year period from 1970 to 2014, mortality rates were calculated and age–period–cohort Poisson models were used to predict future burden of MPM cases until 2039. During the period 1970–2014 a total number of 28,907 MPM deaths were observed. MPM deaths increased constantly over the study period, ranging from 1356 cases in 1970–1974 to 5844 cases in 2010–2014. The peak of MPM cases is expected to be reached in the period 2020–2024 (about 7000 cases). The decrease will be slow: about 26,000 MPM cases are expected to occur in Italy during the next 20 years (2020–2039). The MPM epidemic in Italy is far from being concluded despite the national ban implemented in 1992, and the peak is expected in 2020–2024, in both sexes. Our results are consistent with international literature. MDPI 2020-01-17 2020-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7013387/ /pubmed/31963601 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020607 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Oddone, Enrico
Bollon, Jordy
Nava, Consuelo Rubina
Bugani, Marcella
Consonni, Dario
Marinaccio, Alessandro
Magnani, Corrado
Barone-Adesi, Francesco
Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use
title Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use
title_full Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use
title_fullStr Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use
title_full_unstemmed Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use
title_short Predictions of Mortality from Pleural Mesothelioma in Italy After the Ban of Asbestos Use
title_sort predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in italy after the ban of asbestos use
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7013387/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31963601
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17020607
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