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Predictive Nomogram for Early Recurrence after Pancreatectomy in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: Risk Classification Using Preoperative Clinicopathologic Factors

The survival of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is closely related to recurrence. It is necessary to classify the risk factors for early recurrence and to develop a tool for predicting the initial outcome after surgery. Among patients with resected resectable PDAC at Samsung Me...

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Autores principales: Kim, Naru, Han, In Woong, Ryu, Youngju, Hwang, Dae Wook, Heo, Jin Seok, Choi, Dong Wook, Shin, Sang Hyun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7016958/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31935830
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers12010137
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author Kim, Naru
Han, In Woong
Ryu, Youngju
Hwang, Dae Wook
Heo, Jin Seok
Choi, Dong Wook
Shin, Sang Hyun
author_facet Kim, Naru
Han, In Woong
Ryu, Youngju
Hwang, Dae Wook
Heo, Jin Seok
Choi, Dong Wook
Shin, Sang Hyun
author_sort Kim, Naru
collection PubMed
description The survival of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is closely related to recurrence. It is necessary to classify the risk factors for early recurrence and to develop a tool for predicting the initial outcome after surgery. Among patients with resected resectable PDAC at Samsung Medical Center (Seoul, Korea) between January 2007 and December 2016, 631 patients were classified as the training set. Analyses identifying preoperative factors affecting early recurrence after surgery were performed. When the p-value estimated from univariable Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis was <0.05, the variables were included in multivariable analysis and used for establishing the nomogram. The established nomogram predicted the probability of early recurrence within 12 months after surgery in resectable PDAC. One thousand bootstrap resamplings were used to validate the nomogram. The concordance index was 0.665 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.637–0.695), and the incremental area under the curve was 0.655 (95% CI, 0.631–0.682). We developed a web-based calculator, and the nomogram is freely available at http://pdac.smchbp.org/. This is the first nomogram to predict early recurrence after surgery for resectable PDAC in the preoperative setting, providing a method to allow proceeding to treatment customized according to the risk of individual patients.
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spelling pubmed-70169582020-02-28 Predictive Nomogram for Early Recurrence after Pancreatectomy in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: Risk Classification Using Preoperative Clinicopathologic Factors Kim, Naru Han, In Woong Ryu, Youngju Hwang, Dae Wook Heo, Jin Seok Choi, Dong Wook Shin, Sang Hyun Cancers (Basel) Article The survival of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is closely related to recurrence. It is necessary to classify the risk factors for early recurrence and to develop a tool for predicting the initial outcome after surgery. Among patients with resected resectable PDAC at Samsung Medical Center (Seoul, Korea) between January 2007 and December 2016, 631 patients were classified as the training set. Analyses identifying preoperative factors affecting early recurrence after surgery were performed. When the p-value estimated from univariable Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis was <0.05, the variables were included in multivariable analysis and used for establishing the nomogram. The established nomogram predicted the probability of early recurrence within 12 months after surgery in resectable PDAC. One thousand bootstrap resamplings were used to validate the nomogram. The concordance index was 0.665 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.637–0.695), and the incremental area under the curve was 0.655 (95% CI, 0.631–0.682). We developed a web-based calculator, and the nomogram is freely available at http://pdac.smchbp.org/. This is the first nomogram to predict early recurrence after surgery for resectable PDAC in the preoperative setting, providing a method to allow proceeding to treatment customized according to the risk of individual patients. MDPI 2020-01-06 /pmc/articles/PMC7016958/ /pubmed/31935830 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers12010137 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Kim, Naru
Han, In Woong
Ryu, Youngju
Hwang, Dae Wook
Heo, Jin Seok
Choi, Dong Wook
Shin, Sang Hyun
Predictive Nomogram for Early Recurrence after Pancreatectomy in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: Risk Classification Using Preoperative Clinicopathologic Factors
title Predictive Nomogram for Early Recurrence after Pancreatectomy in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: Risk Classification Using Preoperative Clinicopathologic Factors
title_full Predictive Nomogram for Early Recurrence after Pancreatectomy in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: Risk Classification Using Preoperative Clinicopathologic Factors
title_fullStr Predictive Nomogram for Early Recurrence after Pancreatectomy in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: Risk Classification Using Preoperative Clinicopathologic Factors
title_full_unstemmed Predictive Nomogram for Early Recurrence after Pancreatectomy in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: Risk Classification Using Preoperative Clinicopathologic Factors
title_short Predictive Nomogram for Early Recurrence after Pancreatectomy in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: Risk Classification Using Preoperative Clinicopathologic Factors
title_sort predictive nomogram for early recurrence after pancreatectomy in resectable pancreatic cancer: risk classification using preoperative clinicopathologic factors
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7016958/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31935830
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers12010137
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