Cargando…

Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), predominantly occurs among infants and children. Previous studies have shown that suitable, stable temperatures favor HFMD virus reproduction; however, temperature fluctuations also affect virus transmission, and there are, so far, no studies concerning the asso...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Xu, Chengdong, Zhang, Xiangxue, Wang, Li, Zhou, Yuke, Xiao, Gexin, Liao, Jiaqiang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7018740/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32054890
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-59265-z
_version_ 1783497383036846080
author Xu, Chengdong
Zhang, Xiangxue
Wang, Li
Zhou, Yuke
Xiao, Gexin
Liao, Jiaqiang
author_facet Xu, Chengdong
Zhang, Xiangxue
Wang, Li
Zhou, Yuke
Xiao, Gexin
Liao, Jiaqiang
author_sort Xu, Chengdong
collection PubMed
description Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), predominantly occurs among infants and children. Previous studies have shown that suitable, stable temperatures favor HFMD virus reproduction; however, temperature fluctuations also affect virus transmission, and there are, so far, no studies concerning the association between such fluctuations and the incidence of HFMD. The objective of this study was to map the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD incidence and quantify the long-term effects of temperature fluctuations on HFMD incidence in children. HFMD cases in children under five, from January 2009 to December 2013, in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces of China, were used in this study. The GeoDetector and Bayesian space-time hierarchy models were employed to explore the spatial-temporal association between temperature fluctuations and HFMD incidence. The results indicate that HFMD incidence had significant spatial stratified heterogeneity (GeoDetector q-statistic = 0.83, p < 0.05), and that areas with higher risk mainly appeared in metropolises and their adjacent regions. HFMD transmission was negatively associated with temperature fluctuations. A 1 °C increase in the standard deviation of maximum and minimum temperatures was associated with decreases of 8.22% and 11.87% in the risk of HFMD incidence, respectively. The study suggests that large temperature fluctuations affect virus growth or multiplication, thereby inhibiting the activity of the virus and potentially even leading to its extinction, and consequently affecting the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD. The findings can serve as a reference for the practical control of this disease and offer help in the rational allocation of medical resources.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7018740
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2020
publisher Nature Publishing Group UK
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-70187402020-02-21 Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease Xu, Chengdong Zhang, Xiangxue Wang, Li Zhou, Yuke Xiao, Gexin Liao, Jiaqiang Sci Rep Article Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), predominantly occurs among infants and children. Previous studies have shown that suitable, stable temperatures favor HFMD virus reproduction; however, temperature fluctuations also affect virus transmission, and there are, so far, no studies concerning the association between such fluctuations and the incidence of HFMD. The objective of this study was to map the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD incidence and quantify the long-term effects of temperature fluctuations on HFMD incidence in children. HFMD cases in children under five, from January 2009 to December 2013, in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces of China, were used in this study. The GeoDetector and Bayesian space-time hierarchy models were employed to explore the spatial-temporal association between temperature fluctuations and HFMD incidence. The results indicate that HFMD incidence had significant spatial stratified heterogeneity (GeoDetector q-statistic = 0.83, p < 0.05), and that areas with higher risk mainly appeared in metropolises and their adjacent regions. HFMD transmission was negatively associated with temperature fluctuations. A 1 °C increase in the standard deviation of maximum and minimum temperatures was associated with decreases of 8.22% and 11.87% in the risk of HFMD incidence, respectively. The study suggests that large temperature fluctuations affect virus growth or multiplication, thereby inhibiting the activity of the virus and potentially even leading to its extinction, and consequently affecting the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD. The findings can serve as a reference for the practical control of this disease and offer help in the rational allocation of medical resources. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-02-13 /pmc/articles/PMC7018740/ /pubmed/32054890 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-59265-z Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Xu, Chengdong
Zhang, Xiangxue
Wang, Li
Zhou, Yuke
Xiao, Gexin
Liao, Jiaqiang
Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease
title Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease
title_full Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease
title_fullStr Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease
title_full_unstemmed Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease
title_short Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease
title_sort effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7018740/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32054890
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-59265-z
work_keys_str_mv AT xuchengdong effectsoftemperaturefluctuationsonspatialtemporaltransmissionofhandfootandmouthdisease
AT zhangxiangxue effectsoftemperaturefluctuationsonspatialtemporaltransmissionofhandfootandmouthdisease
AT wangli effectsoftemperaturefluctuationsonspatialtemporaltransmissionofhandfootandmouthdisease
AT zhouyuke effectsoftemperaturefluctuationsonspatialtemporaltransmissionofhandfootandmouthdisease
AT xiaogexin effectsoftemperaturefluctuationsonspatialtemporaltransmissionofhandfootandmouthdisease
AT liaojiaqiang effectsoftemperaturefluctuationsonspatialtemporaltransmissionofhandfootandmouthdisease