Computational MHC-I epitope predictor identifies 95% of experimentally mapped HIV-1 clade A and D epitopes in a Ugandan cohort

BACKGROUND: Identifying immunogens that induce HIV-1-specific immune responses is a lengthy process that can benefit from computational methods, which predict T-cell epitopes for various HLA types. METHODS: We tested the performance of the NetMHCpan4.0 computational neural network in re-identifying 93 T-cell epitopes that had been previously independently mapped using the whole proteome IFN-γ ELISPOT assays in 6 HLA class I typed Ugandan individuals infected with HIV-1 subtypes A1 and D. To provide a benchmark we compared the predictions for NetMHCpan4.0 to MHCflurry1.2.0 and NetCTL1.2. RESULTS: NetMHCpan4.0 performed best correctly predicting 88 of the 93 experimentally mapped epitopes for a set length of 9-mer and matched HLA class I alleles. Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analysis gave an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.928. Setting NetMHCpan4.0 to predict 11-14mer length did not improve the prediction (37–79 of 93 peptides) with an inverse correlation between the number of predictions and length set. Late time point peptides were significantly stronger binders than early peptides (Wilcoxon signed rank test: p = 0.0000005). MHCflurry1.2.0 similarly predicted all but 2 of the peptides that NetMHCpan4.0 predicted and NetCTL1.2 predicted only 14 of the 93 experimental peptides. CONCLUSION: NetMHCpan4.0 class I epitope predictions covered 95% of the epitope responses identified in six HIV-1 infected individuals, and would have reduced the number of experimental confirmatory tests by > 80%. Algorithmic epitope prediction in conjunction with HLA allele frequency information can cost-effectively assist immunogen design through minimizing the experimental effort.