Prostate Cancer Incidence in U.S. Counties and Low Levels of Arsenic in Drinking Water

Background: Although inorganic arsenic in drinking water at high levels (100s–1000s μg/L [ppb]) increases cancer risk (skin, bladder, lung, and possibly prostate), the evidence at lower levels is limited. Methods: We conducted an ecologic analysis of the dose-response relationship between prostate cancer incidence and low arsenic levels in drinking water in a large study of U.S. counties (N = 710). County arsenic levels were <200 ug/L with median <100 ug/L and dependency greater than 10%. Groundwater well usage, water arsenic levels, prostate cancer incidence rates (2009–2013), and co-variate data were obtained from various U.S. governmental agencies. Poisson and negative-binomial regression analyses and stratified analysis were performed. Results: The best fitting polynomial analysis yielded a J-shaped linear-quadratic model. Linear and quadratic terms were significant (p < 0.001) in the Poisson model, and the quadratic term was significant (p < 0.05) in the negative binomial model. This model indicated a decreasing risk of prostate cancer with increasing arsenic level in the low range and increasing risk above. Conclusions: This study of prostate cancer incidence in US counties with low levels of arsenic in their well-water arsenic levels finds a j-shaped model with decreasing risk at very low levels and increasing risk at higher levels.