The diagnostic accuracy of routine clinical findings for detection of esophageal varices in rural sub-Saharan Africa where schistosomiasis is endemic

BACKGROUND: Variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is common in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, poor access to endoscopy services precludes the diagnosis of varices. OBJECTIVES: We determined the diagnostic accuracy of routine clinical findings for detection of esophageal varices among patients with UGIB in rural SSA where schistosomiasis is endemic. METHODS: We studied patients with a history of UGIB. The index tests included routine clinical findings and the reference test was diagnostic endoscopy. Multivariable regression with post-estimation provided measures of association and diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: We studied 107 participants with UGIB and 21% had active bleeding. One hundred and three (96%) had liver disease and 86(80%) varices. Factors associated with varices (p-value <0.05) were ≥ 4 lifetime episodes of UGIB, prior blood transfusion, splenomegaly, liver fibrosis, thrombocytopenia, platelet count spleen diameter ratio <909, and a dilated portal vein. Two models showed an overall diagnostic accuracy of > 90% in detection of varices with a number needed to misdiagnose of 13(number of patients who needed to be tested in order for one to be misdiagnosed by the test). CONCLUSION: Where access to endoscopy is limited, routine clinical findings could improve the diagnosis of patients with UGIB in Africa. The diagnostic accuracy of routine clinical findings for detection of esophageal varices in rural sub-Saharan Africa where schistosomiasis is endemic.