Growth and establishment of monodominant stands affected by ENSO and flooding in the Pantanal

Climatic factors can influence the establishment and growth of wood species, but little is known about the effect of these factors on monodominant communities in wetlands. Therefore, we asked how climatic factors, such as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), precipitation and flooding, influence growth and establishment of the dominant species Erythrina fusca in the Pantanal. We determined the age of sampled individuals, the age of the population and evaluated the effects of climate on tree growth. We obtained samples for dendrochronological analyses using destructive (seven individuals) and non-destructive methods. We cross-dated and built a chronology, correlating results with climatic factors. We sampled 0.6 ha of the population and separated individuals into diameter classes to determine age based on diameter/age ratio obtained through dendrochronological analyses. We obtained a chronology with individuals up to 34 years old, while in the population sample, the oldest individual was 54 years old. The factors that influenced growth during the study period were precipitation (positive correlation) and El Niño (negative correlation). E. fusca individuals seem to grow more during the period of highest precipitation, and El Niño events reduce precipitation in the Pantanal, resulting in a decrease in the growth of E. fusca individuals. We detected a decrease of young individuals in the last nine years, which seems to be related to the decrease in minimum flood levels. This indicates a future decline in the number of individuals. These results allow us to propose measures to protect these monodominant formations, which mainly involve avoiding further anthropic activities, that could reduce flooding levels.