Engineering Meteorological Features to Select Stress Tolerant Hybrids in Maize

In this study we used meteorological parameters and predictive modelling interpreted by model explanation to develop stress metrics that indicate the presence of drought and heat stress at the specific environment. We started from the extreme temperature and precipitation indices, modified some of them and introduced additional drought indices relevant to the analysis. Based on maize’s sensitivity to stress, the growing season was divided into four stages. The features were calculated throughout the growing season and split in two groups, one for the drought and the other for heat stress. Generated meteorological features were combined with soil features and fed to random forest regression model for the yield prediction. Model explanation gave us the contribution of features to yield decrease, from which we estimated total amount of stress at the environments, which represents new environmental index. Using this index we ranked the environments according to the level of stress. More than 2400 hybrids were tested across the environments where they were grown and based on the yield stability they were marked as either tolerant or susceptible to heat, drought or combined heat and drought stress. Presented methodology and results were produced within the Syngenta Crop Challenge 2019.