Potential impact of reduced tobacco use on life and health expectancies in Belgium

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the potential impact of reduced tobacco use scenarios on total life expectancy and health expectancies, i.e., healthy life years and unhealthy life years. METHODS: Data from the Belgian Health Interview Survey 2013 were used to estimate smoking and disability prevalence. Disability was based on the Global Activity Limitation Indicator. We used DYNAMO-HIA to quantify the impacts of risk factor changes and to compare the “business-as-usual” with alternative scenarios. RESULTS: The “business-as-usual” scenario estimated that in 2028 the 15-year-old men/women would live additional 50/52 years without disability and 14/17 years with disability. The “smoking-free population” scenario added 3.4/2.8 healthy life years and reduced unhealthy life years by 0.79/1.9. Scenarios combining the prevention of smoking initiation with smoking cessation programs are the most effective, yielding the largest increase in healthy life years (1.9/1.7) and the largest decrease in unhealthy life years (− 0.80/− 1.47). CONCLUSIONS: Health impact assessment tools provide different scenarios for evidence-informed public health actions. New anti-smoking strategies or stricter enforcement of existing policies potentially gain more healthy life years and reduce unhealthy life years in Belgium. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00038-019-01315-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.