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Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing

This study applies survival analysis to the birth histories from 317 national surveys to model pathways to low fertility in 83 less-developed countries between 1965 and 2014. It presents period measures of parity progression, the length of birth intervals and total fertility that have been standardi...

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Autores principales: Timæus, Ian M., Moultrie, Tom A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7051933/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31970647
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00848-5
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author Timæus, Ian M.
Moultrie, Tom A.
author_facet Timæus, Ian M.
Moultrie, Tom A.
author_sort Timæus, Ian M.
collection PubMed
description This study applies survival analysis to the birth histories from 317 national surveys to model pathways to low fertility in 83 less-developed countries between 1965 and 2014. It presents period measures of parity progression, the length of birth intervals and total fertility that have been standardized fully for age, parity, and interval duration. It also examines parity-specific trends in the proportion of women who want no more children. Outside sub-Saharan Africa, fertility transition was dominated by parity-specific family size limitation. As the transition progressed, women also began to postpone their next birth for lengthy periods in many countries. During the first half of the fertility transition in much of sub-Saharan Africa and in some other countries, however, women stopped childbearing without targeting particular family sizes. Moreover, birth intervals in sub-Saharan Africa have been lengthening since the onset of the transition. Birth control is not restricted to a dichotomy between limitation and spacing. Other reasons for curtailing childbearing and postponing having another birth also shape countries’ pathways through fertility transition. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13524-019-00848-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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spelling pubmed-70519332020-03-16 Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing Timæus, Ian M. Moultrie, Tom A. Demography Article This study applies survival analysis to the birth histories from 317 national surveys to model pathways to low fertility in 83 less-developed countries between 1965 and 2014. It presents period measures of parity progression, the length of birth intervals and total fertility that have been standardized fully for age, parity, and interval duration. It also examines parity-specific trends in the proportion of women who want no more children. Outside sub-Saharan Africa, fertility transition was dominated by parity-specific family size limitation. As the transition progressed, women also began to postpone their next birth for lengthy periods in many countries. During the first half of the fertility transition in much of sub-Saharan Africa and in some other countries, however, women stopped childbearing without targeting particular family sizes. Moreover, birth intervals in sub-Saharan Africa have been lengthening since the onset of the transition. Birth control is not restricted to a dichotomy between limitation and spacing. Other reasons for curtailing childbearing and postponing having another birth also shape countries’ pathways through fertility transition. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13524-019-00848-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Springer US 2020-01-22 2020-02 /pmc/articles/PMC7051933/ /pubmed/31970647 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00848-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Timæus, Ian M.
Moultrie, Tom A.
Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing
title Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing
title_full Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing
title_fullStr Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing
title_full_unstemmed Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing
title_short Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing
title_sort pathways to low fertility: 50 years of limitation, curtailment, and postponement of childbearing
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7051933/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31970647
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00848-5
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