Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey

Epidemics are highly unpredictable, and so are real-world population dynamics. In this paper, we examine a dynamical model of an ecosystem with one predator and two prey species of which one carries a disease. We find that the system behaves chaotically for a wide range of parameters. Using the allo...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Eilersen, Andreas, Jensen, Mogens H., Sneppen, Kim
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7054530/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32127626
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60945-z
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author Eilersen, Andreas
Jensen, Mogens H.
Sneppen, Kim
author_facet Eilersen, Andreas
Jensen, Mogens H.
Sneppen, Kim
author_sort Eilersen, Andreas
collection PubMed
description Epidemics are highly unpredictable, and so are real-world population dynamics. In this paper, we examine a dynamical model of an ecosystem with one predator and two prey species of which one carries a disease. We find that the system behaves chaotically for a wide range of parameters. Using the allometric mass scaling of animal and disease lifetimes, we predict chaos if (a) the disease is infectious enough to persist, and (b) it affects the larger prey species. This provides another example of chaos in a Lotka-Volterra system and a possible explanation for the apparent randomness of epizootic outbreaks.
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spelling pubmed-70545302020-03-11 Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey Eilersen, Andreas Jensen, Mogens H. Sneppen, Kim Sci Rep Article Epidemics are highly unpredictable, and so are real-world population dynamics. In this paper, we examine a dynamical model of an ecosystem with one predator and two prey species of which one carries a disease. We find that the system behaves chaotically for a wide range of parameters. Using the allometric mass scaling of animal and disease lifetimes, we predict chaos if (a) the disease is infectious enough to persist, and (b) it affects the larger prey species. This provides another example of chaos in a Lotka-Volterra system and a possible explanation for the apparent randomness of epizootic outbreaks. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-03-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7054530/ /pubmed/32127626 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60945-z Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Eilersen, Andreas
Jensen, Mogens H.
Sneppen, Kim
Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey
title Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey
title_full Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey
title_fullStr Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey
title_full_unstemmed Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey
title_short Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey
title_sort chaos in disease outbreaks among prey
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7054530/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32127626
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60945-z
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