Cargando…
Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition
Child development research on overconfidence suggests that the bias is present and persistent in preschoolers and kindergartners. However, little is known about what drives overconfidence among young decision-makers, how it changes over a large number of repetitions, and whether such changes differ...
Autor principal: | |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7055226/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32132639 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61078-z |
_version_ | 1783503330293579776 |
---|---|
author | Piehlmaier, Dominik M. |
author_facet | Piehlmaier, Dominik M. |
author_sort | Piehlmaier, Dominik M. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Child development research on overconfidence suggests that the bias is present and persistent in preschoolers and kindergartners. However, little is known about what drives overconfidence among young decision-makers, how it changes over a large number of repetitions, and whether such changes differ by gender or age. The current experimental study analyzes data from 60 children, aged 4 years 0 months to 6 years 10 months, who played 60 turns of the Children’s Gambling Task and provided regular estimates on their performance. A video intervention, designed to demonstrate the consequences of disadvantageous choices, was tested in a double-blind randomized controlled trial to assess its impact on overconfidence. The results show that every third participant remained overconfident even after 60 trials and constant feedback. Unlike previously reported, gender seems to be a determining factor in this process. Lastly, providing additional information through a video intervention appears to have no impact on participants’ overconfidence levels. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7055226 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-70552262020-03-11 Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition Piehlmaier, Dominik M. Sci Rep Article Child development research on overconfidence suggests that the bias is present and persistent in preschoolers and kindergartners. However, little is known about what drives overconfidence among young decision-makers, how it changes over a large number of repetitions, and whether such changes differ by gender or age. The current experimental study analyzes data from 60 children, aged 4 years 0 months to 6 years 10 months, who played 60 turns of the Children’s Gambling Task and provided regular estimates on their performance. A video intervention, designed to demonstrate the consequences of disadvantageous choices, was tested in a double-blind randomized controlled trial to assess its impact on overconfidence. The results show that every third participant remained overconfident even after 60 trials and constant feedback. Unlike previously reported, gender seems to be a determining factor in this process. Lastly, providing additional information through a video intervention appears to have no impact on participants’ overconfidence levels. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-03-04 /pmc/articles/PMC7055226/ /pubmed/32132639 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61078-z Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Piehlmaier, Dominik M. Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition |
title | Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition |
title_full | Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition |
title_fullStr | Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition |
title_full_unstemmed | Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition |
title_short | Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition |
title_sort | overconfidence among young decision-makers: assessing the effectiveness of a video intervention and the role of gender, age, feedback, and repetition |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7055226/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32132639 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61078-z |
work_keys_str_mv | AT piehlmaierdominikm overconfidenceamongyoungdecisionmakersassessingtheeffectivenessofavideointerventionandtheroleofgenderagefeedbackandrepetition |