Prediction of emergency cesarean section by measurable maternal and fetal characteristics

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the maternal and fetal factors affecting emergency cesarean section (EmCS) and establish a risk scoring system to quantitatively predict the risk of EmCS. DESIGN: A total of 10,295 pregnant women were enrolled in this study. The influence of maternal and fetal factors on the risk of EmCS was analyzed. RESULTS: 991 (9.63%) cases of failed vaginal delivery received EmCS. The two main causes of EmCS were fetal distress (67.21%) and abnormal fetal position (14.93%). There were significant differences in 17 maternal and fetal factors between the normal vaginal delivery (NVD) and EmCS groups (p<0.05 for all). Univariate and multivariate regression analyses showed that nine maternal and infant factors were independent risk factors (p<0.05 for all). The major factors were abnormal quantity of amniotic fluid (OR 6.867, 95% CI 4.442 to 10.618), nulliparous (OR 4.336, 95% CI 3.074 to 6.115), induction of labor (OR 5.300, 95% CI 4.514 to 6.224) and abnormal characters of amniotic fluid (OR 3.126, 95% CI 2.708 to 3.608). A risk scoring system (six grades) was established based on those factors which showed high discriminative power. The rate of EmCS was 1.30%, 2.57%, 5.83%, 13.94%, 21.75% and 39.71% in grades 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, respectively. The area under the curve of the risk scoring system was 0.787, indicating that the regression model of the risk factors had a good predictive ability. CONCLUSION: An effective risk scoring system has been developed to quantitatively assess the risk of EmCS based on measurable maternal and fetal factors. The system is simple, easy to operate and has good repeatability in clinical practice.