Optimal timing for prediction of pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy with diffusion-weighted MRI in patients with esophageal cancer

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted in order to determine the optimal timing of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) for prediction of pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) for esophageal cancer. METHODS: Patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma who planned to undergo nCRT followed by surgery were enrolled in this prospective study. Patients underwent six DW-MRI scans: one baseline scan before the start of nCRT and weekly scans during 5 weeks of nCRT. Relative changes in mean apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values between the baseline scans and the scans during nCRT (ΔADC(%)) were compared between pathologic complete responders (pCR) and non-pCR (tumor regression grades 2–5). The discriminative ability of ΔADC(%) was determined based on the c-statistic. RESULTS: A total of 24 patients with 142 DW-MRI scans were included. pCR was observed in seven patients (29%). ΔADC(%) from baseline to week 2 was significantly higher in patients with pCR versus non-pCR (median [IQR], 36% [30%, 41%] for pCR versus 16% [14%, 29%] for non-pCR, p = 0.004). The ΔADC(%) of the second week in combination with histology resulted in the highest c-statistic for the prediction of pCR versus non-pCR (0.87). The c-statistic of this model increased to 0.97 after additional exclusion of patients with a small tumor volume (< 7 mL, n = 3) and tumor histology of the resection specimen other than adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma (n = 1). CONCLUSION: The relative change in tumor ADC (ΔADC(%)) during the first 2 weeks of nCRT is the most predictive for pathologic complete response to nCRT in esophageal cancer patients. KEY POINTS: • DW-MRI during the second week of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy is most predictive for pathologic complete response in esophageal cancer. • A model including ΔADC(week 2) was able to discriminate between pathologic complete responders and non-pathologic complete responders in 87%. • Improvements in future MRI studies for esophageal cancer may be obtained by incorporating motion management techniques. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00330-019-06513-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.