Effect of gender on mortality and causes of death in cirrhotic patients with gastroesophageal varices. A retrospective study in Norway

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic role of gender in patients with liver cirrhosis is not fully understood. Our primary aim was to assess how gender affects cumulative incidence and risk of death without liver transplantation (LT) in cirrhotic patients with gastroesophageal varices. Secondary aims were to assess the relationship between gender and cause specific death, risk of variceal bleeding and incidence rates of gastroesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: All new patients with gastroesophageal varices due to liver cirrhosis at Oslo University Hospital between 2006 and May 2016 were identified. Clinical data were retrieved retrospectively from hospital files. Causes of death were classified according to a specified protocol in cases of in-hospital-death, otherwise by data from the Norwegian Death Registry. Competing risk analyses were used to calculate cumulative incidences and risks of i) all-cause death, ii) cause-specific death and iii) variceal bleeding or re-bleeding. RESULTS: Cumulative one- and five years incidence of death without LT in 266 included patients were 28% and 51%, respectively. In univariate analysis, risk of death was positively associated with age, Child Pugh class, alcoholic liver disease and presentation with variceal bleeding, and negatively associated with female sex. In a multivariate model, risk of death without LT was associated with female sex (SHR 0.59 [0.40–0.86]), age (SHR 1.05 [1.04–1.07] per year), Child Pugh class B (SHR 1.54 [1.03–2.32]) and Child Pugh class C (SHR 4.29 [2.57–7.17]). Variceal bleeding caused 27% of deaths. Adjusting for age and Child Pugh score, a trend towards reduced risk of death due to variceal bleeding was seen in women (SHR 0.53; [0.26–1.06]). High alcohol consumption was associated with increased risk of first variceal bleeding, both at univariate analysis (SHR 7.73 [1.71–34.9]) and multivariate analysis (SHR 13.9 [2.51–77.0]). CONCLUSIONS: Reduced mortality due to variceal bleeding may contribute to improved survival without LT in cirrhotic women with gastroesophageal varices.