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Nomogram for Prediction of Bronchial Mucus Plugs in Children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia
The presence of bronchial mucus plugs (BMP) in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) results in delayed clinical and radiographic resolution and long-standing pulmonary sequelae. The predictive factors associated with BMP formation remains poorly defined. Nomograms to predict BMP prese...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7067858/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32165709 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61348-w |
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author | Xu, Xuefeng Li, Huiwen Sheng, Yuanjian Wu, Lei Wang, Danli Liu, Lingyue Tong, Yu Chen, Zhimin |
author_facet | Xu, Xuefeng Li, Huiwen Sheng, Yuanjian Wu, Lei Wang, Danli Liu, Lingyue Tong, Yu Chen, Zhimin |
author_sort | Xu, Xuefeng |
collection | PubMed |
description | The presence of bronchial mucus plugs (BMP) in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) results in delayed clinical and radiographic resolution and long-standing pulmonary sequelae. The predictive factors associated with BMP formation remains poorly defined. Nomograms to predict BMP presence in children with MPP were proposed using a cohort of patients who underwent bronchoscopy intervention at Children’s Hospital in Eastern China. Patients with MPP in an earlier period formed the training cohort (n = 872) for nomogram development, and those thereafter formed the validation cohort (n = 399) to confirmed model’s performance. BMP in children with MPP were found in 196 (22.5%) and 91(22.8%) patients in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with BMP were age >5years (OR 2.06; 95% CI 1.43 to 2.98), higher IL-10 level (>10 ng/L, 2.19; 95% CI 1.46 to 3.28), higher IFN-γ level (>30 ng/L, 1.69; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.54), and presence of complication (3.43; 95% CI 1.45 to 8.09). Incorporating these 4 factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.771(95% CI, 0.734–0.808) and 0.796 (95% CI, 0.744–0.848) in predicting BMP in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The nomogram achieved an optimal prediction of BMP in children with MPP. Using this model, the risk of BMP formation would be determined, contributing to a rational therapeutic choice. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7067858 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-70678582020-03-22 Nomogram for Prediction of Bronchial Mucus Plugs in Children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia Xu, Xuefeng Li, Huiwen Sheng, Yuanjian Wu, Lei Wang, Danli Liu, Lingyue Tong, Yu Chen, Zhimin Sci Rep Article The presence of bronchial mucus plugs (BMP) in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) results in delayed clinical and radiographic resolution and long-standing pulmonary sequelae. The predictive factors associated with BMP formation remains poorly defined. Nomograms to predict BMP presence in children with MPP were proposed using a cohort of patients who underwent bronchoscopy intervention at Children’s Hospital in Eastern China. Patients with MPP in an earlier period formed the training cohort (n = 872) for nomogram development, and those thereafter formed the validation cohort (n = 399) to confirmed model’s performance. BMP in children with MPP were found in 196 (22.5%) and 91(22.8%) patients in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with BMP were age >5years (OR 2.06; 95% CI 1.43 to 2.98), higher IL-10 level (>10 ng/L, 2.19; 95% CI 1.46 to 3.28), higher IFN-γ level (>30 ng/L, 1.69; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.54), and presence of complication (3.43; 95% CI 1.45 to 8.09). Incorporating these 4 factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.771(95% CI, 0.734–0.808) and 0.796 (95% CI, 0.744–0.848) in predicting BMP in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The nomogram achieved an optimal prediction of BMP in children with MPP. Using this model, the risk of BMP formation would be determined, contributing to a rational therapeutic choice. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-03-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7067858/ /pubmed/32165709 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61348-w Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Xu, Xuefeng Li, Huiwen Sheng, Yuanjian Wu, Lei Wang, Danli Liu, Lingyue Tong, Yu Chen, Zhimin Nomogram for Prediction of Bronchial Mucus Plugs in Children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia |
title | Nomogram for Prediction of Bronchial Mucus Plugs in Children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia |
title_full | Nomogram for Prediction of Bronchial Mucus Plugs in Children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia |
title_fullStr | Nomogram for Prediction of Bronchial Mucus Plugs in Children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia |
title_full_unstemmed | Nomogram for Prediction of Bronchial Mucus Plugs in Children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia |
title_short | Nomogram for Prediction of Bronchial Mucus Plugs in Children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae Pneumonia |
title_sort | nomogram for prediction of bronchial mucus plugs in children with mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7067858/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32165709 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-61348-w |
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