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Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change

Heat stress would be intensified under global warming and become a key issue of occupational health for labor force working outdoors. The changes in labor force would affect regional socioeconomic development. So far, changes in labor force due to heat stress are not well documented in China. In thi...

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Autor principal: Liu, Xingcai
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068449/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32079330
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17041278
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author Liu, Xingcai
author_facet Liu, Xingcai
author_sort Liu, Xingcai
collection PubMed
description Heat stress would be intensified under global warming and become a key issue of occupational health for labor force working outdoors. The changes in labor force would affect regional socioeconomic development. So far, changes in labor force due to heat stress are not well documented in China. In this study, heat stress based on wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which combines the thermal effects on the human body of both temperature and humidity, is projected for the near future (2021–2050) and the end of the century (2071–2099). Changes in labor capacity are then estimated for heavy and light work based on the relationships between labor capacity and the WBGT. Low and high emission scenarios, namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, are considered for the future projections in the hottest two months (July and August) in China. Results suggest that the WBGT would increase by more than 3–5 °C by the end of the century. The labor capacity would decrease by more than 40% for both heavy and light work in considerable areas such as South and East China, where there is a large population and developed economy. This indicates that labor force would reduce significantly due to intensified heat stress. This study calls for special attention to the impact of heat stress on occupational health and the labor force in China in the future.
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spelling pubmed-70684492020-03-19 Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change Liu, Xingcai Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Heat stress would be intensified under global warming and become a key issue of occupational health for labor force working outdoors. The changes in labor force would affect regional socioeconomic development. So far, changes in labor force due to heat stress are not well documented in China. In this study, heat stress based on wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which combines the thermal effects on the human body of both temperature and humidity, is projected for the near future (2021–2050) and the end of the century (2071–2099). Changes in labor capacity are then estimated for heavy and light work based on the relationships between labor capacity and the WBGT. Low and high emission scenarios, namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, are considered for the future projections in the hottest two months (July and August) in China. Results suggest that the WBGT would increase by more than 3–5 °C by the end of the century. The labor capacity would decrease by more than 40% for both heavy and light work in considerable areas such as South and East China, where there is a large population and developed economy. This indicates that labor force would reduce significantly due to intensified heat stress. This study calls for special attention to the impact of heat stress on occupational health and the labor force in China in the future. MDPI 2020-02-17 2020-02 /pmc/articles/PMC7068449/ /pubmed/32079330 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17041278 Text en © 2020 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Liu, Xingcai
Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change
title Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change
title_full Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change
title_fullStr Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change
title_short Reductions in Labor Capacity from Intensified Heat Stress in China under Future Climate Change
title_sort reductions in labor capacity from intensified heat stress in china under future climate change
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068449/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32079330
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17041278
work_keys_str_mv AT liuxingcai reductionsinlaborcapacityfromintensifiedheatstressinchinaunderfutureclimatechange