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Assessing Seasonality Variation with Harmonic Regression: Accommodations for Sharp Peaks

The use of the harmonic regression model is well accepted in the epidemiological and biostatistical communities as a standard procedure to examine seasonal patterns in disease occurrence. While these models may provide good fit to periodic patterns with relatively symmetric rises and falls, for some...

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Autores principales: Ramanathan, Kavitha, Thenmozhi, Mani, George, Sebastian, Anandan, Shalini, Veeraraghavan, Balaji, Naumova, Elena N., Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068504/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32085630
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17041318
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author Ramanathan, Kavitha
Thenmozhi, Mani
George, Sebastian
Anandan, Shalini
Veeraraghavan, Balaji
Naumova, Elena N.
Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan
author_facet Ramanathan, Kavitha
Thenmozhi, Mani
George, Sebastian
Anandan, Shalini
Veeraraghavan, Balaji
Naumova, Elena N.
Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan
author_sort Ramanathan, Kavitha
collection PubMed
description The use of the harmonic regression model is well accepted in the epidemiological and biostatistical communities as a standard procedure to examine seasonal patterns in disease occurrence. While these models may provide good fit to periodic patterns with relatively symmetric rises and falls, for some diseases the incidence fluctuates in a more complex manner. We propose a two-step harmonic regression approach to improve the model fit for data exhibiting sharp seasonal peaks. To capture such specific behavior, we first build a basic model and estimate the seasonal peak. At the second step, we apply an extended model using sine and cosine transform functions. These newly proposed functions mimic a quadratic term in the harmonic regression models and thus allow us to better fit the seasonal spikes. We illustrate the proposed method using actual and simulated data and recommend the new approach to assess seasonality in a broad spectrum of diseases manifesting sharp seasonal peaks.
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spelling pubmed-70685042020-03-19 Assessing Seasonality Variation with Harmonic Regression: Accommodations for Sharp Peaks Ramanathan, Kavitha Thenmozhi, Mani George, Sebastian Anandan, Shalini Veeraraghavan, Balaji Naumova, Elena N. Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The use of the harmonic regression model is well accepted in the epidemiological and biostatistical communities as a standard procedure to examine seasonal patterns in disease occurrence. While these models may provide good fit to periodic patterns with relatively symmetric rises and falls, for some diseases the incidence fluctuates in a more complex manner. We propose a two-step harmonic regression approach to improve the model fit for data exhibiting sharp seasonal peaks. To capture such specific behavior, we first build a basic model and estimate the seasonal peak. At the second step, we apply an extended model using sine and cosine transform functions. These newly proposed functions mimic a quadratic term in the harmonic regression models and thus allow us to better fit the seasonal spikes. We illustrate the proposed method using actual and simulated data and recommend the new approach to assess seasonality in a broad spectrum of diseases manifesting sharp seasonal peaks. MDPI 2020-02-18 2020-02 /pmc/articles/PMC7068504/ /pubmed/32085630 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17041318 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Ramanathan, Kavitha
Thenmozhi, Mani
George, Sebastian
Anandan, Shalini
Veeraraghavan, Balaji
Naumova, Elena N.
Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan
Assessing Seasonality Variation with Harmonic Regression: Accommodations for Sharp Peaks
title Assessing Seasonality Variation with Harmonic Regression: Accommodations for Sharp Peaks
title_full Assessing Seasonality Variation with Harmonic Regression: Accommodations for Sharp Peaks
title_fullStr Assessing Seasonality Variation with Harmonic Regression: Accommodations for Sharp Peaks
title_full_unstemmed Assessing Seasonality Variation with Harmonic Regression: Accommodations for Sharp Peaks
title_short Assessing Seasonality Variation with Harmonic Regression: Accommodations for Sharp Peaks
title_sort assessing seasonality variation with harmonic regression: accommodations for sharp peaks
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068504/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32085630
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17041318
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