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Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study
Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing extern...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7072188/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32085617 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers12020477 |
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author | Cunha Rola, Alda Taktak, Azzam Eleuteri, Antonio Kalirai, Helen Heimann, Heinrich Hussain, Rumana Bonnett, Laura J. Hill, Christopher J. Traynor, Matthew Jager, Martine J. Marinkovic, Marina Luyten, Gregorius P.M. Dogrusöz, Mehmet Kilic, Emine de Klein, Annelies Smit, Kyra van Poppelen, Natasha M Damato, Bertil E. Afshar, Armin Guthoff, Rudolf F. Scheef, Björn O. Kakkassery, Vinodh Saakyan, Svetlana Tsygankov, Alexander Mosci, Carlo Ligorio, Paolo Viaggi, Silvia Le Guin, Claudia H.D. Bornfeld, Norbert Bechrakis, Nikolaos E. Coupland, Sarah E. |
author_facet | Cunha Rola, Alda Taktak, Azzam Eleuteri, Antonio Kalirai, Helen Heimann, Heinrich Hussain, Rumana Bonnett, Laura J. Hill, Christopher J. Traynor, Matthew Jager, Martine J. Marinkovic, Marina Luyten, Gregorius P.M. Dogrusöz, Mehmet Kilic, Emine de Klein, Annelies Smit, Kyra van Poppelen, Natasha M Damato, Bertil E. Afshar, Armin Guthoff, Rudolf F. Scheef, Björn O. Kakkassery, Vinodh Saakyan, Svetlana Tsygankov, Alexander Mosci, Carlo Ligorio, Paolo Viaggi, Silvia Le Guin, Claudia H.D. Bornfeld, Norbert Bechrakis, Nikolaos E. Coupland, Sarah E. |
author_sort | Cunha Rola, Alda |
collection | PubMed |
description | Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7072188 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-70721882020-03-19 Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study Cunha Rola, Alda Taktak, Azzam Eleuteri, Antonio Kalirai, Helen Heimann, Heinrich Hussain, Rumana Bonnett, Laura J. Hill, Christopher J. Traynor, Matthew Jager, Martine J. Marinkovic, Marina Luyten, Gregorius P.M. Dogrusöz, Mehmet Kilic, Emine de Klein, Annelies Smit, Kyra van Poppelen, Natasha M Damato, Bertil E. Afshar, Armin Guthoff, Rudolf F. Scheef, Björn O. Kakkassery, Vinodh Saakyan, Svetlana Tsygankov, Alexander Mosci, Carlo Ligorio, Paolo Viaggi, Silvia Le Guin, Claudia H.D. Bornfeld, Norbert Bechrakis, Nikolaos E. Coupland, Sarah E. Cancers (Basel) Article Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers. MDPI 2020-02-18 /pmc/articles/PMC7072188/ /pubmed/32085617 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers12020477 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Cunha Rola, Alda Taktak, Azzam Eleuteri, Antonio Kalirai, Helen Heimann, Heinrich Hussain, Rumana Bonnett, Laura J. Hill, Christopher J. Traynor, Matthew Jager, Martine J. Marinkovic, Marina Luyten, Gregorius P.M. Dogrusöz, Mehmet Kilic, Emine de Klein, Annelies Smit, Kyra van Poppelen, Natasha M Damato, Bertil E. Afshar, Armin Guthoff, Rudolf F. Scheef, Björn O. Kakkassery, Vinodh Saakyan, Svetlana Tsygankov, Alexander Mosci, Carlo Ligorio, Paolo Viaggi, Silvia Le Guin, Claudia H.D. Bornfeld, Norbert Bechrakis, Nikolaos E. Coupland, Sarah E. Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study |
title | Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study |
title_full | Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study |
title_fullStr | Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study |
title_full_unstemmed | Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study |
title_short | Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study |
title_sort | multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: an oog collaborative study |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7072188/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32085617 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers12020477 |
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