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Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study

Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing extern...

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Autores principales: Cunha Rola, Alda, Taktak, Azzam, Eleuteri, Antonio, Kalirai, Helen, Heimann, Heinrich, Hussain, Rumana, Bonnett, Laura J., Hill, Christopher J., Traynor, Matthew, Jager, Martine J., Marinkovic, Marina, Luyten, Gregorius P.M., Dogrusöz, Mehmet, Kilic, Emine, de Klein, Annelies, Smit, Kyra, van Poppelen, Natasha M, Damato, Bertil E., Afshar, Armin, Guthoff, Rudolf F., Scheef, Björn O., Kakkassery, Vinodh, Saakyan, Svetlana, Tsygankov, Alexander, Mosci, Carlo, Ligorio, Paolo, Viaggi, Silvia, Le Guin, Claudia H.D., Bornfeld, Norbert, Bechrakis, Nikolaos E., Coupland, Sarah E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7072188/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32085617
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers12020477
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author Cunha Rola, Alda
Taktak, Azzam
Eleuteri, Antonio
Kalirai, Helen
Heimann, Heinrich
Hussain, Rumana
Bonnett, Laura J.
Hill, Christopher J.
Traynor, Matthew
Jager, Martine J.
Marinkovic, Marina
Luyten, Gregorius P.M.
Dogrusöz, Mehmet
Kilic, Emine
de Klein, Annelies
Smit, Kyra
van Poppelen, Natasha M
Damato, Bertil E.
Afshar, Armin
Guthoff, Rudolf F.
Scheef, Björn O.
Kakkassery, Vinodh
Saakyan, Svetlana
Tsygankov, Alexander
Mosci, Carlo
Ligorio, Paolo
Viaggi, Silvia
Le Guin, Claudia H.D.
Bornfeld, Norbert
Bechrakis, Nikolaos E.
Coupland, Sarah E.
author_facet Cunha Rola, Alda
Taktak, Azzam
Eleuteri, Antonio
Kalirai, Helen
Heimann, Heinrich
Hussain, Rumana
Bonnett, Laura J.
Hill, Christopher J.
Traynor, Matthew
Jager, Martine J.
Marinkovic, Marina
Luyten, Gregorius P.M.
Dogrusöz, Mehmet
Kilic, Emine
de Klein, Annelies
Smit, Kyra
van Poppelen, Natasha M
Damato, Bertil E.
Afshar, Armin
Guthoff, Rudolf F.
Scheef, Björn O.
Kakkassery, Vinodh
Saakyan, Svetlana
Tsygankov, Alexander
Mosci, Carlo
Ligorio, Paolo
Viaggi, Silvia
Le Guin, Claudia H.D.
Bornfeld, Norbert
Bechrakis, Nikolaos E.
Coupland, Sarah E.
author_sort Cunha Rola, Alda
collection PubMed
description Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.
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spelling pubmed-70721882020-03-19 Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study Cunha Rola, Alda Taktak, Azzam Eleuteri, Antonio Kalirai, Helen Heimann, Heinrich Hussain, Rumana Bonnett, Laura J. Hill, Christopher J. Traynor, Matthew Jager, Martine J. Marinkovic, Marina Luyten, Gregorius P.M. Dogrusöz, Mehmet Kilic, Emine de Klein, Annelies Smit, Kyra van Poppelen, Natasha M Damato, Bertil E. Afshar, Armin Guthoff, Rudolf F. Scheef, Björn O. Kakkassery, Vinodh Saakyan, Svetlana Tsygankov, Alexander Mosci, Carlo Ligorio, Paolo Viaggi, Silvia Le Guin, Claudia H.D. Bornfeld, Norbert Bechrakis, Nikolaos E. Coupland, Sarah E. Cancers (Basel) Article Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3’s performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3’s ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers. MDPI 2020-02-18 /pmc/articles/PMC7072188/ /pubmed/32085617 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers12020477 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Cunha Rola, Alda
Taktak, Azzam
Eleuteri, Antonio
Kalirai, Helen
Heimann, Heinrich
Hussain, Rumana
Bonnett, Laura J.
Hill, Christopher J.
Traynor, Matthew
Jager, Martine J.
Marinkovic, Marina
Luyten, Gregorius P.M.
Dogrusöz, Mehmet
Kilic, Emine
de Klein, Annelies
Smit, Kyra
van Poppelen, Natasha M
Damato, Bertil E.
Afshar, Armin
Guthoff, Rudolf F.
Scheef, Björn O.
Kakkassery, Vinodh
Saakyan, Svetlana
Tsygankov, Alexander
Mosci, Carlo
Ligorio, Paolo
Viaggi, Silvia
Le Guin, Claudia H.D.
Bornfeld, Norbert
Bechrakis, Nikolaos E.
Coupland, Sarah E.
Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study
title Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study
title_full Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study
title_fullStr Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study
title_full_unstemmed Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study
title_short Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study
title_sort multicenter external validation of the liverpool uveal melanoma prognosticator online: an oog collaborative study
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7072188/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32085617
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers12020477
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