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Projected burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus-related complications in Singapore until 2050: a Bayesian evidence synthesis

OBJECTIVE: We examined the effects of age, gender, and ethnicity on the risk of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and end-stage renal disease according to type 2 diabetes mellitus status among adults aged 40–79 in Singapore. METHODS: A Bayesian inference framework was used to derive age-specific,...

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Autores principales: Tan, Ken Wei, Dickens, Borame Sue Lee, Cook, Alex R
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BMJ Publishing Group 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7076230/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32184203
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2019-000928
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author Tan, Ken Wei
Dickens, Borame Sue Lee
Cook, Alex R
author_facet Tan, Ken Wei
Dickens, Borame Sue Lee
Cook, Alex R
author_sort Tan, Ken Wei
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVE: We examined the effects of age, gender, and ethnicity on the risk of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and end-stage renal disease according to type 2 diabetes mellitus status among adults aged 40–79 in Singapore. METHODS: A Bayesian inference framework was used to derive age-specific, gender-specific and ethnicity-specific prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus from the 2010 Singapore National Health Survey, and age-standardized gender and ethnicity-specific incidence rates of acute myocardial infarction, stroke and end-stage renal disease from the National Registry of Diseases Office. Population forecasts were used in tandem with incidence rates to project the future chronic disease burden until 2050. RESULTS: The highest relative risk of acute myocardial infarction was observed in the youngest age group (aged 40–44), with higher relative risk for women (men: 4.3 (2.7–6.4); women: 16.9 (9.3–28.3)). A similar trend was observed for stroke (men: 6.5 (4.2–9.7); women: 10.7 (6.0–17.4)). For end-stage renal disease, the highest relative risk was for men aged 45–50 (11.8 (8.0–16.9)) and women aged 55–60 (16.4 (10.7–24.0)). The annual incidence of acute myocardial infarction is projected to rise from 9300 (in 2019) to 16 400 (in 2050), the number of strokes from 7300 to 12 800, and the number of end-stage renal disease cases from 1700 to 2700. CONCLUSIONS: Type 2 diabetes mellitus was associated with an increased risk of complications and is modulated by age and gender. Prevention and early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus can reduce the increasing burden of secondary complications.
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spelling pubmed-70762302020-03-20 Projected burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus-related complications in Singapore until 2050: a Bayesian evidence synthesis Tan, Ken Wei Dickens, Borame Sue Lee Cook, Alex R BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care Epidemiology/Health Services Research OBJECTIVE: We examined the effects of age, gender, and ethnicity on the risk of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and end-stage renal disease according to type 2 diabetes mellitus status among adults aged 40–79 in Singapore. METHODS: A Bayesian inference framework was used to derive age-specific, gender-specific and ethnicity-specific prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus from the 2010 Singapore National Health Survey, and age-standardized gender and ethnicity-specific incidence rates of acute myocardial infarction, stroke and end-stage renal disease from the National Registry of Diseases Office. Population forecasts were used in tandem with incidence rates to project the future chronic disease burden until 2050. RESULTS: The highest relative risk of acute myocardial infarction was observed in the youngest age group (aged 40–44), with higher relative risk for women (men: 4.3 (2.7–6.4); women: 16.9 (9.3–28.3)). A similar trend was observed for stroke (men: 6.5 (4.2–9.7); women: 10.7 (6.0–17.4)). For end-stage renal disease, the highest relative risk was for men aged 45–50 (11.8 (8.0–16.9)) and women aged 55–60 (16.4 (10.7–24.0)). The annual incidence of acute myocardial infarction is projected to rise from 9300 (in 2019) to 16 400 (in 2050), the number of strokes from 7300 to 12 800, and the number of end-stage renal disease cases from 1700 to 2700. CONCLUSIONS: Type 2 diabetes mellitus was associated with an increased risk of complications and is modulated by age and gender. Prevention and early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus can reduce the increasing burden of secondary complications. BMJ Publishing Group 2020-03-16 /pmc/articles/PMC7076230/ /pubmed/32184203 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2019-000928 Text en © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.
spellingShingle Epidemiology/Health Services Research
Tan, Ken Wei
Dickens, Borame Sue Lee
Cook, Alex R
Projected burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus-related complications in Singapore until 2050: a Bayesian evidence synthesis
title Projected burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus-related complications in Singapore until 2050: a Bayesian evidence synthesis
title_full Projected burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus-related complications in Singapore until 2050: a Bayesian evidence synthesis
title_fullStr Projected burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus-related complications in Singapore until 2050: a Bayesian evidence synthesis
title_full_unstemmed Projected burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus-related complications in Singapore until 2050: a Bayesian evidence synthesis
title_short Projected burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus-related complications in Singapore until 2050: a Bayesian evidence synthesis
title_sort projected burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus-related complications in singapore until 2050: a bayesian evidence synthesis
topic Epidemiology/Health Services Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7076230/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32184203
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2019-000928
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