Different ODE models of tumor growth can deliver similar results

BACKGROUND: Simeoni and colleagues introduced a compartmental model for tumor growth that has proved quite successful in modeling experimental therapeutic regimens in oncology. The model is based on a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and accommodates a lag in therapeutic action through delay compartments. There is some ambiguity in the appropriate number of delay compartments, which we examine in this note. METHODS: We devised an explicit delay differential equation model that reflects the main features of the Simeoni ODE model. We evaluated the original Simeoni model and this adaptation with a sample data set of mammary tumor growth in the FVB/N-Tg(MMTVneu)202Mul/J mouse model. RESULTS: The experimental data evinced tumor growth heterogeneity and inter-individual diversity in response, which could be accommodated statistically through mixed models. We found little difference in goodness of fit between the original Simeoni model and the delay differential equation model relative to the sample data set. CONCLUSIONS: One should exercise caution if asserting a particular mathematical model uniquely characterizes tumor growth curve data. The Simeoni ODE model of tumor growth is not unique in that alternative models can provide equivalent representations of tumor growth.