The factors associated with natural disease progression from HIV to AIDS in the absence of ART, a propensity score matching analysis

This study aimed at comparing the factors associated with the natural progression between typical progressors (TPs) and rapid progressors (RPs) in HIV-infected individuals. A retrospective study was conducted on 2095 eligible HIV-infected individuals from 1995 to 2016 in a high-risk area of Henan Province, China. Propensity score matching was used to balance covariates, and the conditional logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the factors of natural disease progression among HIV infectors. A total of 379 pairs of RPs and TPs were matched. The standardised difference values of all covariates were less than 10%. HIV-infected individuals transmitted through sexual transmission (odds ratio (OR) 0.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36–0.85) were more likely to progress to AIDS compared with those infected through contaminated blood. Older age at diagnosis of HIV-infected individuals (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.58–0.89) exhibited a faster progression to AIDS. HIV-infected individuals identified through a unique survey (OR 7.01, 95% CI 2.99–16.44) were less likely to progress to AIDS compared with those identified through medical institutions. HIV-infected individuals who had higher baseline CD4(+)T cell counts (OR 3.37, 95% CI 2.59–4.38) had a slower progression to AIDS. These findings provide evidence for natural disease progression from HIV to AIDS between TPs and RPs.