Clinical scoring system for the prediction of survival of patients with advanced gastric cancer

OBJECTIVE: In this study, we established a risk scoring system using easily obtained clinical characteristics at the time of initiating palliative chemotherapy to predict accurate overall survival of patients with advanced gastric cancer after first-line treatment with fluoropyrimidine–platinum combination chemotherapy. METHODS: A total of 1733 patients treated at the Samsung Medical Center, Korea were included in the study, and clinicopathological and laboratory data were retrospectively analysed. The dataset was split into a training set (n=1156, 67%) and a validation set (n=577, 33%). Top-ranked variables were identified using the random forest survival algorithm and integrated into a Cox regression model, thereby constructing the scoring system for predicting the overall survival of patients with advanced gastric cancer. RESULTS: The following five variables were finally included in the scoring system: serum neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio, alkaline phosphatase level, albumin level, performance status and histologic differentiation. The scoring system determined four distinct risk groups in the validation dataset with median overall survival of 17.1 months (95% CI=14.9 to 20.5 months), 12.9 months (95% CI=11.4 to 14.6 months), 8.1 months (95% CI=5.3 to 12.3 months) and 3.9 months (95% CI=1.5 to 8.2 months), respectively. The area under the curve to estimate the discrimination performance of the scoring system was 66.1 considering 1 year overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a simple and clinically useful predictive scoring model in a homogeneous population with advanced gastric cancer treated with fluoropyrimidine-containing and platinum-containing chemotherapy. However, additional independent validation will be required before the scoring model can be used commonly.