Geospatial variation in measles vaccine coverage through routine and campaign strategies in Nigeria: Analysis of recent household surveys

Measles vaccination campaigns are conducted regularly in many low- and middle-income countries to boost measles control efforts and accelerate progress towards elimination. National and sometimes first-level administrative division campaign coverage may be estimated through post-campaign coverage surveys (PCCS). However, these large-area estimates mask significant geographic inequities in coverage at more granular levels. Here, we undertake a geospatial analysis of the Nigeria 2017–18 PCCS data to produce coverage estimates at 1 × 1 km resolution and the district level using binomial spatial regression models built on a suite of geospatial covariates and implemented in a Bayesian framework via the INLA-SPDE approach. We investigate the individual and combined performance of the campaign and routine immunization (RI) by mapping various indicators of coverage for children aged 9–59 months. Additionally, we compare estimated coverage before the campaign at 1 × 1 km and the district level with predicted coverage maps produced using other surveys conducted in 2013 and 2016–17. Coverage during the campaign was generally higher and more homogeneous than RI coverage but geospatial differences in the campaign’s reach of previously unvaccinated children are shown. Persistent areas of low coverage highlight the need for improved RI performance. The results can help to guide the conduct of future campaigns, improve vaccination monitoring and measles elimination efforts. Moreover, the approaches used here can be readily extended to other countries.