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High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite–host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes

We use a multitype continuous time Markov branching process model to describe the dynamics of the spread of parasites of two types that can mutate into each other in a common host population. While most mathematical models for the virulence of infectious diseases focus on the interplay between the d...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Borovkov, K., Day, R., Rice, T.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer-Verlag 2012
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7080088/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22461126
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-012-0526-9
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author Borovkov, K.
Day, R.
Rice, T.
author_facet Borovkov, K.
Day, R.
Rice, T.
author_sort Borovkov, K.
collection PubMed
description We use a multitype continuous time Markov branching process model to describe the dynamics of the spread of parasites of two types that can mutate into each other in a common host population. While most mathematical models for the virulence of infectious diseases focus on the interplay between the dynamics of host populations and the optimal characteristics for the success of the pathogen, our model focuses on how pathogen characteristics may change at the start of an epidemic, before the density of susceptible hosts decline. We envisage animal husbandry situations where hosts are at very high density and epidemics are curtailed before host densities are much reduced. The use of three pathogen characteristics: lethality, transmissibility and mutability allows us to investigate the interplay of these in relation to host density. We provide some numerical illustrations and discuss the effects of the size of the enclosure containing the host population on the encounter rate in our model that plays the key role in determining what pathogen type will eventually prevail. We also present a multistage extension of the model to situations where there are several populations and parasites can be transmitted from one of them to another. We conclude that animal husbandry situations with high stock densities will lead to very rapid increases in virulence, where virulent strains are either more transmissible or favoured by mutation. Further the process is affected by the nature of the farm enclosures.
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spelling pubmed-70800882020-03-23 High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite–host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes Borovkov, K. Day, R. Rice, T. J Math Biol Article We use a multitype continuous time Markov branching process model to describe the dynamics of the spread of parasites of two types that can mutate into each other in a common host population. While most mathematical models for the virulence of infectious diseases focus on the interplay between the dynamics of host populations and the optimal characteristics for the success of the pathogen, our model focuses on how pathogen characteristics may change at the start of an epidemic, before the density of susceptible hosts decline. We envisage animal husbandry situations where hosts are at very high density and epidemics are curtailed before host densities are much reduced. The use of three pathogen characteristics: lethality, transmissibility and mutability allows us to investigate the interplay of these in relation to host density. We provide some numerical illustrations and discuss the effects of the size of the enclosure containing the host population on the encounter rate in our model that plays the key role in determining what pathogen type will eventually prevail. We also present a multistage extension of the model to situations where there are several populations and parasites can be transmitted from one of them to another. We conclude that animal husbandry situations with high stock densities will lead to very rapid increases in virulence, where virulent strains are either more transmissible or favoured by mutation. Further the process is affected by the nature of the farm enclosures. Springer-Verlag 2012-03-30 2013 /pmc/articles/PMC7080088/ /pubmed/22461126 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-012-0526-9 Text en © Springer-Verlag 2012 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Borovkov, K.
Day, R.
Rice, T.
High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite–host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes
title High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite–host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes
title_full High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite–host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes
title_fullStr High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite–host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes
title_full_unstemmed High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite–host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes
title_short High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite–host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes
title_sort high host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite–host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7080088/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22461126
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-012-0526-9
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