Changing trajectories of serum uric acid and risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: It is unclear the role of longitudinal trajectory of serum uric acid (SUA) on the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to determine whether longitudinal SUA trajectories are associated with the risk of new-onset NAFLD. METHODS: We explored the relationship between SUA trajectories and NAFLD in a cohort including 3822 participants. Individual’s SUA trajectories from 2012 to 2014 were defined using group-based trajectory modeling analysis in four distinct patterns: trajectory 1 (n = 991, 25.93%), trajectory 2 (n = 1421, 37.18%), trajectory 3 (n = 1156, 30.22%), and trajectory 4 (n = 254, 6.67%). The logistic regression model was used to evaluate the association between SUA changing trajectories and subsequent NAFLD until 2016. Dose–response relationship between SUA changing trajectories and NAFLD risk was evaluated through the testing of trajectory groups as a continuous variable. RESULTS: The 2-year incidence of NAFLD was 13.27%. Compared with trajectory 1, the adjusted odds risk for NAFLD development was in a dose–response relationship as follows: 1.27 (95% CI 0.91–1.78) for trajectory 2, 1.89 (95% CI 1.29–2.75) for trajectory 3, and 2.34 (95% CI 1.43–3.83) for trajectory 4. And this dose–response relationship was not affected by age, sex, and abdominal obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Higher SUA changing trajectory is a risk factor for NAFLD. This finding highlights the importance of paying attention to SUA changing trajectory on the detection and prevention of NAFLD.