Leukocyte Telomere Length Independently Predicts 3-Year Diabetes Risk in a Longitudinal Study of Chinese Population

Cellular aging markers, including telomere length and mitochondrial function, as well as oxidative stress and inflammation markers influence each other and form a complex network, which is affected in diabetes. However, it remains unknown whether these markers could independently predict future diabetes after adjustment for their mutual effects. We conducted a 3-year longitudinal study in a Chinese cohort that comprised 108 nondiabetic individuals at baseline. The 2-hour 75 g oral glucose tolerance tests were performed at baseline and at 3-year follow-up. At baseline, leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNAcn) in leukocytes were determined using the polymerase chain reaction method. Tumor necrosis factor (TNF-α), interleukin-6, 8-hydroxy-2-deoxyguanosine levels, and superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity were measured by the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Participants who developed diabetes at the 3-year follow-up (n = 28) had shorter LTL and higher levels of TNF-α and SOD activity at baseline. Baseline LTL was found to be independently associated with the development of diabetes at the 3-year follow-up after the adjustment for mtDNAcn, markers of oxidative stress and inflammation, and conventional diabetes risk factors. Our findings suggest that LTL is an independent predictor for 3-year diabetes risk, which might inform timely prevention and treatment of diabetes. Telomere shortening might be involved in the pathogenesis of diabetes independently of conventional diabetes risk factors, mtDNAcn, or oxidative stress and inflammation pathways.