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Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available
A strain-specific vaccine is unlikely to be available in the early phases of a potential H5N1 avian influenza pandemic. It could be months and at the current production rate may not provide timely protection to the population. Intervention strategies that control the spread of infection will be nece...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer US
2008
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7087848/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32214872 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10588-008-9027-1 |
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author | Mniszewski, S. M. Del Valle, S. Y. Stroud, P. D. Riese, J. M. Sydoriak, S. J. |
author_facet | Mniszewski, S. M. Del Valle, S. Y. Stroud, P. D. Riese, J. M. Sydoriak, S. J. |
author_sort | Mniszewski, S. M. |
collection | PubMed |
description | A strain-specific vaccine is unlikely to be available in the early phases of a potential H5N1 avian influenza pandemic. It could be months and at the current production rate may not provide timely protection to the population. Intervention strategies that control the spread of infection will be necessary in this situation, such as the use of the US stockpile of antiviral medication coupled with a 6-month school closure. The agent-based simulation model, EpiSimS, was used to assess the impact of this intervention strategy followed by three different vaccine approaches: (1) 2-dose, 80% effective, (2) 1-dose, 30% effective, and (3) 1 dose, 80% effective. Simulations show that the combination of antivirals, school closures, and a strain-specific vaccine can reduce morbidity and mortality while in effect. A significant second infection wave can occur with current vaccine technology once school closures are relaxed, though an ideal vaccine is able to contain it. In our simulations, worker absenteeism increases in all cases mostly attributed to household adults staying home with children due to the school closures. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7087848 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2008 |
publisher | Springer US |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-70878482020-03-23 Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available Mniszewski, S. M. Del Valle, S. Y. Stroud, P. D. Riese, J. M. Sydoriak, S. J. Comput Math Organ Theory Article A strain-specific vaccine is unlikely to be available in the early phases of a potential H5N1 avian influenza pandemic. It could be months and at the current production rate may not provide timely protection to the population. Intervention strategies that control the spread of infection will be necessary in this situation, such as the use of the US stockpile of antiviral medication coupled with a 6-month school closure. The agent-based simulation model, EpiSimS, was used to assess the impact of this intervention strategy followed by three different vaccine approaches: (1) 2-dose, 80% effective, (2) 1-dose, 30% effective, and (3) 1 dose, 80% effective. Simulations show that the combination of antivirals, school closures, and a strain-specific vaccine can reduce morbidity and mortality while in effect. A significant second infection wave can occur with current vaccine technology once school closures are relaxed, though an ideal vaccine is able to contain it. In our simulations, worker absenteeism increases in all cases mostly attributed to household adults staying home with children due to the school closures. Springer US 2008-04-11 2008 /pmc/articles/PMC7087848/ /pubmed/32214872 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10588-008-9027-1 Text en © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2008 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Article Mniszewski, S. M. Del Valle, S. Y. Stroud, P. D. Riese, J. M. Sydoriak, S. J. Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available |
title | Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available |
title_full | Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available |
title_fullStr | Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available |
title_full_unstemmed | Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available |
title_short | Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available |
title_sort | pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7087848/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32214872 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10588-008-9027-1 |
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