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Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in Mainland China using meta-modeling

A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map...

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Autores principales: Cao, ChunXiang, Xu, Min, Chang, ChaoYi, Xue, Yong, Zhong, ShaoBo, Fang, LiQun, Cao, WuChun, Zhang, Hao, Gao, MengXu, He, QiSheng, Zhao, Jian, Chen, Wei, Zheng, Sheng, Li, XiaoWen
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: SP Science China Press 2010
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7088651/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32214736
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-4225-x
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author Cao, ChunXiang
Xu, Min
Chang, ChaoYi
Xue, Yong
Zhong, ShaoBo
Fang, LiQun
Cao, WuChun
Zhang, Hao
Gao, MengXu
He, QiSheng
Zhao, Jian
Chen, Wei
Zheng, Sheng
Li, XiaoWen
author_facet Cao, ChunXiang
Xu, Min
Chang, ChaoYi
Xue, Yong
Zhong, ShaoBo
Fang, LiQun
Cao, WuChun
Zhang, Hao
Gao, MengXu
He, QiSheng
Zhao, Jian
Chen, Wei
Zheng, Sheng
Li, XiaoWen
author_sort Cao, ChunXiang
collection PubMed
description A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map with the aid of logistic regression. A Bayesian maximum entropy model was employed to explore the spatial and temporal correlations of HPAI incidence. The results show that proximity to water bodies and national highways was statistically relevant to the occurrence of HPAI. Migratory birds, mainly waterfowl, were important infection sources in HPAI transmission. In addition, the HPAI outbreaks had high spatiotemporal autocorrelation. This epidemic spatial range fluctuated 45 km owing to different distribution patterns of cities and water bodies. Furthermore, two outbreaks were likely to occur with a period of 22 d. The potential risk of occurrence of HPAI in Mainland China for the period from January 23 to February 17, 2004 was simulated based on these findings, providing a useful meta-model framework for the application of environmental factors in the prediction of HPAI risk.
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spelling pubmed-70886512020-03-23 Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in Mainland China using meta-modeling Cao, ChunXiang Xu, Min Chang, ChaoYi Xue, Yong Zhong, ShaoBo Fang, LiQun Cao, WuChun Zhang, Hao Gao, MengXu He, QiSheng Zhao, Jian Chen, Wei Zheng, Sheng Li, XiaoWen Chin Sci Bull Article A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map with the aid of logistic regression. A Bayesian maximum entropy model was employed to explore the spatial and temporal correlations of HPAI incidence. The results show that proximity to water bodies and national highways was statistically relevant to the occurrence of HPAI. Migratory birds, mainly waterfowl, were important infection sources in HPAI transmission. In addition, the HPAI outbreaks had high spatiotemporal autocorrelation. This epidemic spatial range fluctuated 45 km owing to different distribution patterns of cities and water bodies. Furthermore, two outbreaks were likely to occur with a period of 22 d. The potential risk of occurrence of HPAI in Mainland China for the period from January 23 to February 17, 2004 was simulated based on these findings, providing a useful meta-model framework for the application of environmental factors in the prediction of HPAI risk. SP Science China Press 2010-12-09 2010 /pmc/articles/PMC7088651/ /pubmed/32214736 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-4225-x Text en © Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Cao, ChunXiang
Xu, Min
Chang, ChaoYi
Xue, Yong
Zhong, ShaoBo
Fang, LiQun
Cao, WuChun
Zhang, Hao
Gao, MengXu
He, QiSheng
Zhao, Jian
Chen, Wei
Zheng, Sheng
Li, XiaoWen
Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in Mainland China using meta-modeling
title Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in Mainland China using meta-modeling
title_full Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in Mainland China using meta-modeling
title_fullStr Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in Mainland China using meta-modeling
title_full_unstemmed Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in Mainland China using meta-modeling
title_short Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in Mainland China using meta-modeling
title_sort risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in mainland china using meta-modeling
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7088651/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32214736
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-4225-x
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