Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading

Based upon the simulation of the stochastic process of infection, onset and spreading of each SARS patient, a system dynamic model of SRAS spreading is constructed. Data from Vietnam is taken as an example for Monte Carlo test. The preliminary results indicate that the time-dependent infection rate...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Shi, Yaolin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Science in China Press 2003
Materias:
Special Topics
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7089366/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32214705
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF03184164
Descripción
Sumario:Based upon the simulation of the stochastic process of infection, onset and spreading of each SARS patient, a system dynamic model of SRAS spreading is constructed. Data from Vietnam is taken as an example for Monte Carlo test. The preliminary results indicate that the time-dependent infection rate is the most inportant control factor for SARS spreading. The model can be applied to prediction of the course with fluctuations of the epidemics, if the previous history of the epidemics and the future infection rate under control measures are known.

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