Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading

Based upon the simulation of the stochastic process of infection, onset and spreading of each SARS patient, a system dynamic model of SRAS spreading is constructed. Data from Vietnam is taken as an example for Monte Carlo test. The preliminary results indicate that the time-dependent infection rate...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Shi, Yaolin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Science in China Press 2003
Materias:
Special Topics
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7089366/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32214705
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF03184164
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author Shi, Yaolin
author_facet Shi, Yaolin
author_sort Shi, Yaolin
collection PubMed
description Based upon the simulation of the stochastic process of infection, onset and spreading of each SARS patient, a system dynamic model of SRAS spreading is constructed. Data from Vietnam is taken as an example for Monte Carlo test. The preliminary results indicate that the time-dependent infection rate is the most inportant control factor for SARS spreading. The model can be applied to prediction of the course with fluctuations of the epidemics, if the previous history of the epidemics and the future infection rate under control measures are known.
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spelling pubmed-70893662020-03-23 Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading Shi, Yaolin Chin Sci Bull Special Topics Based upon the simulation of the stochastic process of infection, onset and spreading of each SARS patient, a system dynamic model of SRAS spreading is constructed. Data from Vietnam is taken as an example for Monte Carlo test. The preliminary results indicate that the time-dependent infection rate is the most inportant control factor for SARS spreading. The model can be applied to prediction of the course with fluctuations of the epidemics, if the previous history of the epidemics and the future infection rate under control measures are known. Science in China Press 2003 /pmc/articles/PMC7089366/ /pubmed/32214705 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF03184164 Text en © Science in China Press 2003 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Special Topics
Shi, Yaolin
Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading
title Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading
title_full Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading
title_fullStr Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading
title_full_unstemmed Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading
title_short Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading
title_sort stochastic dynamic model of sars spreading
topic Special Topics
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7089366/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32214705
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF03184164
work_keys_str_mv AT shiyaolin stochasticdynamicmodelofsarsspreading

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