Cargando…
A Reed-Frost model taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection
In this paper, we model the epidemic course of a pathogen infection within a semi-closed group which generates clinical signals which do not necessarily permit its ready and certain identification. Typical examples of such a pathogen are influenza-type viruses. We allow for time-varying infectivity...
Autores principales: | , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer-Verlag
2004
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7089437/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15210313 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.bulm.2003.10.003 |
_version_ | 1783509736249884672 |
---|---|
author | de Menezes, Renée X. Ortega, Neli R. S. Massad, Eduardo |
author_facet | de Menezes, Renée X. Ortega, Neli R. S. Massad, Eduardo |
author_sort | de Menezes, Renée X. |
collection | PubMed |
description | In this paper, we model the epidemic course of a pathogen infection within a semi-closed group which generates clinical signals which do not necessarily permit its ready and certain identification. Typical examples of such a pathogen are influenza-type viruses. We allow for time-varying infectivity levels among individuals, and model the probability of infection per contact as a function of the clinical signals. In order to accomplish this, we introduce a modified chain-binomial Reed-Frost model. We obtain an expression for the basic reproduction ratio and determine conditions which guarantee that the epidemic does not survive in the long-term. These conditions being functions of the signal’s distribution, they can be used to design and evaluate interventions, such as treatment protocols. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7089437 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2004 |
publisher | Springer-Verlag |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-70894372020-03-23 A Reed-Frost model taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection de Menezes, Renée X. Ortega, Neli R. S. Massad, Eduardo Bull Math Biol Article In this paper, we model the epidemic course of a pathogen infection within a semi-closed group which generates clinical signals which do not necessarily permit its ready and certain identification. Typical examples of such a pathogen are influenza-type viruses. We allow for time-varying infectivity levels among individuals, and model the probability of infection per contact as a function of the clinical signals. In order to accomplish this, we introduce a modified chain-binomial Reed-Frost model. We obtain an expression for the basic reproduction ratio and determine conditions which guarantee that the epidemic does not survive in the long-term. These conditions being functions of the signal’s distribution, they can be used to design and evaluate interventions, such as treatment protocols. Springer-Verlag 2004 /pmc/articles/PMC7089437/ /pubmed/15210313 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.bulm.2003.10.003 Text en © Society for Mathematical Biology 2004 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Article de Menezes, Renée X. Ortega, Neli R. S. Massad, Eduardo A Reed-Frost model taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection |
title | A Reed-Frost model taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection |
title_full | A Reed-Frost model taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection |
title_fullStr | A Reed-Frost model taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection |
title_full_unstemmed | A Reed-Frost model taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection |
title_short | A Reed-Frost model taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection |
title_sort | reed-frost model taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7089437/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15210313 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.bulm.2003.10.003 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT demenezesreneex areedfrostmodeltakingintoaccountuncertaintiesinthediagnosticoftheinfection AT orteganelirs areedfrostmodeltakingintoaccountuncertaintiesinthediagnosticoftheinfection AT massadeduardo areedfrostmodeltakingintoaccountuncertaintiesinthediagnosticoftheinfection AT demenezesreneex reedfrostmodeltakingintoaccountuncertaintiesinthediagnosticoftheinfection AT orteganelirs reedfrostmodeltakingintoaccountuncertaintiesinthediagnosticoftheinfection AT massadeduardo reedfrostmodeltakingintoaccountuncertaintiesinthediagnosticoftheinfection |