GIS-based modelling reveals the fate of antlion habitats in the Deliblato Sands

The Deliblato Sands Special Nature Reserve (DSSNR; Vojvodina, Serbia) is facing a fast successional process. Open sand steppe habitats, considered as regional biodiversity hotspots, have drastically decreased over the last 25 years. This study combines multi-temporal and –spectral remotely sensed data, in-situ sampling techniques and geospatial modelling procedures to estimate and predict the potential development of open habitats and their biota from the perspective of antlions (Neuroptera, Myrmeleontidae). It was confirmed that vegetation density increased in all parts of the study area between 1992 and 2017. Climate change, manifested in the mean annual precipitation amount, significantly contributes to the speed of succession that could be completed within a 50-year period. Open grassland habitats could reach an alarming fragmentation rate by 2075 (covering 50 times less area than today), according to selected global climate models and emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). However, M. trigrammus could probably survive in the DSSNR until the first half of the century, but its subsequent fate is very uncertain. The information provided in this study can serve for effective management of sand steppes, and antlions should be considered important indicators for conservation monitoring and planning.