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Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control

In an outbreak of an emerging disease the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen may be largely unknown. A key determinant of ability to control the outbreak is the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset. We provide a method for identifying this relationship with high accuracy...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Cope, Robert C., Ross, Joshua V.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7094159/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31734243
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110079
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author Cope, Robert C.
Ross, Joshua V.
author_facet Cope, Robert C.
Ross, Joshua V.
author_sort Cope, Robert C.
collection PubMed
description In an outbreak of an emerging disease the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen may be largely unknown. A key determinant of ability to control the outbreak is the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset. We provide a method for identifying this relationship with high accuracy based on data from simulated household-stratified symptom-onset data. Further, this can be achieved with observations taken on only a few specific days, chosen optimally, within each household. The information provided by this method may inform decision making processes for outbreak response. An accurate and computationally-efficient heuristic for determining the optimal surveillance scheme is introduced. This heuristic provides a novel approach to optimal design for Bayesian model discrimination.
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spelling pubmed-70941592020-03-25 Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control Cope, Robert C. Ross, Joshua V. J Theor Biol Article In an outbreak of an emerging disease the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen may be largely unknown. A key determinant of ability to control the outbreak is the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset. We provide a method for identifying this relationship with high accuracy based on data from simulated household-stratified symptom-onset data. Further, this can be achieved with observations taken on only a few specific days, chosen optimally, within each household. The information provided by this method may inform decision making processes for outbreak response. An accurate and computationally-efficient heuristic for determining the optimal surveillance scheme is introduced. This heuristic provides a novel approach to optimal design for Bayesian model discrimination. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-02-07 2019-11-14 /pmc/articles/PMC7094159/ /pubmed/31734243 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110079 Text en © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Cope, Robert C.
Ross, Joshua V.
Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control
title Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control
title_full Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control
title_fullStr Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control
title_full_unstemmed Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control
title_short Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control
title_sort identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7094159/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31734243
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110079
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