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Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control
In an outbreak of an emerging disease the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen may be largely unknown. A key determinant of ability to control the outbreak is the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset. We provide a method for identifying this relationship with high accuracy...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier Ltd.
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7094159/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31734243 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110079 |
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author | Cope, Robert C. Ross, Joshua V. |
author_facet | Cope, Robert C. Ross, Joshua V. |
author_sort | Cope, Robert C. |
collection | PubMed |
description | In an outbreak of an emerging disease the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen may be largely unknown. A key determinant of ability to control the outbreak is the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset. We provide a method for identifying this relationship with high accuracy based on data from simulated household-stratified symptom-onset data. Further, this can be achieved with observations taken on only a few specific days, chosen optimally, within each household. The information provided by this method may inform decision making processes for outbreak response. An accurate and computationally-efficient heuristic for determining the optimal surveillance scheme is introduced. This heuristic provides a novel approach to optimal design for Bayesian model discrimination. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7094159 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Elsevier Ltd. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-70941592020-03-25 Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control Cope, Robert C. Ross, Joshua V. J Theor Biol Article In an outbreak of an emerging disease the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen may be largely unknown. A key determinant of ability to control the outbreak is the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset. We provide a method for identifying this relationship with high accuracy based on data from simulated household-stratified symptom-onset data. Further, this can be achieved with observations taken on only a few specific days, chosen optimally, within each household. The information provided by this method may inform decision making processes for outbreak response. An accurate and computationally-efficient heuristic for determining the optimal surveillance scheme is introduced. This heuristic provides a novel approach to optimal design for Bayesian model discrimination. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-02-07 2019-11-14 /pmc/articles/PMC7094159/ /pubmed/31734243 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110079 Text en © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Cope, Robert C. Ross, Joshua V. Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control |
title | Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control |
title_full | Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control |
title_fullStr | Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control |
title_full_unstemmed | Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control |
title_short | Identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control |
title_sort | identification of the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset for outbreak control |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7094159/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31734243 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110079 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT coperobertc identificationoftherelativetimingofinfectiousnessandsymptomonsetforoutbreakcontrol AT rossjoshuav identificationoftherelativetimingofinfectiousnessandsymptomonsetforoutbreakcontrol |