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Dynamics of an SEQIHRS epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity

An autonomous deterministic non-linear epidemic model SEQIHRS is proposed for the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease with quarantine and isolation control strategies in a community with pre-existing immunity. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free and a unique endemi...

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Autores principales: Sahu, Govind Prasad, Dhar, Joydip
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Inc. 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7094530/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32226134
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmaa.2014.08.019
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author Sahu, Govind Prasad
Dhar, Joydip
author_facet Sahu, Govind Prasad
Dhar, Joydip
author_sort Sahu, Govind Prasad
collection PubMed
description An autonomous deterministic non-linear epidemic model SEQIHRS is proposed for the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease with quarantine and isolation control strategies in a community with pre-existing immunity. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free and a unique endemic equilibrium. The existence and local stability of the disease free and endemic equilibria are explored in terms of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text]. It is observed that media coverage does not affect the effective reproduction number, but it helps to mitigate disease burden by lowering the number of infectious individuals at the endemic steady state and also lowering the infection peak. A new approach is proposed to estimate the coefficient of media coverage. Using the results of central manifold theory, it is established that as [Formula: see text] passes through unity, transcritical bifurcation occurs in the system and the unique endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable. It is observed that the population level impact of quarantine and isolation depend on the level of transmission by the isolated individuals. Moreover, the higher level of pre-existing immunity in the population decreases the infection peak and causes its early arrival. Theoretical findings are supported by numerical simulation. Sensitivity analysis is performed for [Formula: see text] and state variables at endemic steady state with respect to model parameters.
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spelling pubmed-70945302020-03-25 Dynamics of an SEQIHRS epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity Sahu, Govind Prasad Dhar, Joydip J Math Anal Appl Article An autonomous deterministic non-linear epidemic model SEQIHRS is proposed for the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease with quarantine and isolation control strategies in a community with pre-existing immunity. The model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free and a unique endemic equilibrium. The existence and local stability of the disease free and endemic equilibria are explored in terms of the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text]. It is observed that media coverage does not affect the effective reproduction number, but it helps to mitigate disease burden by lowering the number of infectious individuals at the endemic steady state and also lowering the infection peak. A new approach is proposed to estimate the coefficient of media coverage. Using the results of central manifold theory, it is established that as [Formula: see text] passes through unity, transcritical bifurcation occurs in the system and the unique endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable. It is observed that the population level impact of quarantine and isolation depend on the level of transmission by the isolated individuals. Moreover, the higher level of pre-existing immunity in the population decreases the infection peak and causes its early arrival. Theoretical findings are supported by numerical simulation. Sensitivity analysis is performed for [Formula: see text] and state variables at endemic steady state with respect to model parameters. Elsevier Inc. 2015-01-15 2014-08-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7094530/ /pubmed/32226134 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmaa.2014.08.019 Text en Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Sahu, Govind Prasad
Dhar, Joydip
Dynamics of an SEQIHRS epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity
title Dynamics of an SEQIHRS epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity
title_full Dynamics of an SEQIHRS epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity
title_fullStr Dynamics of an SEQIHRS epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity
title_full_unstemmed Dynamics of an SEQIHRS epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity
title_short Dynamics of an SEQIHRS epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity
title_sort dynamics of an seqihrs epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine and isolation in a community with pre-existing immunity
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7094530/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32226134
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmaa.2014.08.019
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