Erweiterte Spenderkriterien der Bundesärztekammer: Untersuchung zu ihrer Anwendbarkeit als prognostisches Modell für den frühen Verlauf nach Lebertransplantation

INTRODUCTION: Expansion of the donor pool by the use of grafts with extended donor criteria reduces waiting list mortality with an increased risk for graft and patient survival after liver transplantation. The ability of the number of fulfilled extended donor criteria as currently defined by the German Medical Association (BÄK-Score) to predict early outcome is unclear. PATIENTS: A total of 291 consecutive adult liver transplantations (01.01.2007–31.12.2010) in 257 adult recipients were analyzed. METHODS: Primary study endpoints were 30 day mortality, 3 month mortality, 3 month patient and graft survival and the necessity of acute retransplantation within 30 days. For primary study endpoints a ROC curve analysis was performed to calculate sensitivity, specificity and overall model correctness of the BÄK score as a predictive model. Further methods included Kaplan-Meier estimates, log-rank tests, Cox regression analysis, logistic regression analysis and χ(2)-tests. RESULTS: The number of extended donor criteria fulfilled had no statistically significant influence on the primary study endpoints (p > 0.05) or on patient survival (p > 0.05). ROC curve analysis revealed areas under the curve ≤ 0.561 for the prediction of primary study endpoints (overall model correctness < 58%, sensitivity < 52%). CONCLUSIONS: The number of fulfilled extended donor criteria as currently defined by the German Medical Association is unable to predict early outcome after liver transplantation.