Lung function in adults and future burden of obstructive lung diseases in a long-term follow-up

Spirometry is recommended in symptomatic smokers to identify obstructive lung diseases. However, it is unknown whether there are certain characteristics that can be used to identify the individual risk of developing obstructive lung diseases. The aim of this study was to examine the association between lung function in adults and burden of lung diseases throughout 27 years of follow-up. We performed a cohort study among individuals aged 30–49 years at baseline (1991). Spirometry measurements were divided into three groups: (1) FEV(1)/FVC < 70, (2) FEV(1)/FVC: 70–75, (3) FEV(1)/FVC > 75 (reference). Using negative binominal regression, the burden of lung diseases was measured by contacts to general practice, hospitalisations, redeemed respiratory medicine and socioeconomic parameters between 1991 and 2017. A total of 905 citizens were included; mean age of 40.3 years, 47.5% were males and 51.2% were smokers at baseline. The group with an FEV(1)/FVC: 70–75 received more respiratory medicine (IRR = 3.37 (95% CI: 2.69–4.23)), had lower income (IRR = 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93–0.98)), and had more contacts to general practice (IRR = 1.14 (95% CI: 1.07–1.21)) and hospitals for lung diseases (IRR = 2.39 (95% CI: 1.96–5.85)) compared to the reference group. We found an association between lung function and the future burden of lung diseases throughout 27 years of follow-up. In particular, adults with an FEV(1)/FVC: 70–75 need extra attention in the case finding.