The climatic association of population divergence and future extinction risk of Solanum pimpinellifolium

Under intraspecific differentiation driven by differential climatic adaptation, it may be expected that intraspecific genetic groups occur at distinct environments. Populations occupying different niches may therefore differ in their ability to cope with climate change. Here, we addressed this hypothesis with a wild tomato, Solanum pimpinellifolium. This species is distributed from the west side of Andes to the coastal region in Peru and Ecuador and occupies a wide environmental diversity. This environmental diversity is related to the genetic structure of the species providing an ideal material to investigate the isolation by environment hypothesis. While previous hypothesis stated that S. pimpinellifolium originated from northern Peru and migrated northwards and southwards, our results support that S. pimpinellifolium originated from Ecuador and expanded to northern and southern Peru, and during this process, the niche space of S. pimpinellifolium became more associated with cold and drought. We further predicted its fate under anthropogenic climate change. According to our predictions, the northern group will maintain its current extent or even expand to the entire western region of Ecuador. In contrast, we predicted low habitat suitability for the southern group which could potentially lead to the shrinkage of its distribution. In conclusion, we revealed the distinct fates among the differentiated populations driven by environment under global warming conditions.