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Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19

What will be the global impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Answering this question requires accurate forecasting the spread of confirmed cases as well as analysis of the number of deaths and recoveries. Forecasting, however, requires ample historical data. At the same time, no prediction is...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Petropoulos, Fotios, Makridakis, Spyros
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7108716/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32231392
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0231236
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author Petropoulos, Fotios
Makridakis, Spyros
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Makridakis, Spyros
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description What will be the global impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Answering this question requires accurate forecasting the spread of confirmed cases as well as analysis of the number of deaths and recoveries. Forecasting, however, requires ample historical data. At the same time, no prediction is certain as the future rarely repeats itself in the same way as the past. Moreover, forecasts are influenced by the reliability of the data, vested interests, and what variables are being predicted. Also, psychological factors play a significant role in how people perceive and react to the danger from the disease and the fear that it may affect them personally. This paper introduces an objective approach to predicting the continuation of the COVID-19 using a simple, but powerful method to do so. Assuming that the data used is reliable and that the future will continue to follow the past pattern of the disease, our forecasts suggest a continuing increase in the confirmed COVID-19 cases with sizable associated uncertainty. The risks are far from symmetric as underestimating its spread like a pandemic and not doing enough to contain it is much more severe than overspending and being over careful when it will not be needed. This paper describes the timeline of a live forecasting exercise with massive potential implications for planning and decision making and provides objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of COVID-19.
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spelling pubmed-71087162020-04-03 Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19 Petropoulos, Fotios Makridakis, Spyros PLoS One Research Article What will be the global impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Answering this question requires accurate forecasting the spread of confirmed cases as well as analysis of the number of deaths and recoveries. Forecasting, however, requires ample historical data. At the same time, no prediction is certain as the future rarely repeats itself in the same way as the past. Moreover, forecasts are influenced by the reliability of the data, vested interests, and what variables are being predicted. Also, psychological factors play a significant role in how people perceive and react to the danger from the disease and the fear that it may affect them personally. This paper introduces an objective approach to predicting the continuation of the COVID-19 using a simple, but powerful method to do so. Assuming that the data used is reliable and that the future will continue to follow the past pattern of the disease, our forecasts suggest a continuing increase in the confirmed COVID-19 cases with sizable associated uncertainty. The risks are far from symmetric as underestimating its spread like a pandemic and not doing enough to contain it is much more severe than overspending and being over careful when it will not be needed. This paper describes the timeline of a live forecasting exercise with massive potential implications for planning and decision making and provides objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of COVID-19. Public Library of Science 2020-03-31 /pmc/articles/PMC7108716/ /pubmed/32231392 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0231236 Text en © 2020 Petropoulos, Makridakis http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Petropoulos, Fotios
Makridakis, Spyros
Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
title Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
title_full Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
title_fullStr Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
title_short Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19
title_sort forecasting the novel coronavirus covid-19
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7108716/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32231392
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0231236
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